After Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin won the opening race of the round of 8 of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he became the new favorite to win this year's championship at Phoenix Raceway.
It made sense; sure, Hamlin is notoriously the winningest driver in Cup Series history who does not have a championship to his name, with the first six instances of him being championship eligible heading into the season finale each falling short for very different reasons.
But by winning that race, he had technically given himself the best possible chance to win, better than any of the other seven remaining playoff drivers since they had yet to secure spots in the Championship 4. Plus, he is also a two-time Phoenix winner, and it's not like he was a prohibitive favorite; he was listed by FanDuel Sportsbook at +270, implying a 1-in-3.7 chance.
Teammate Chase Briscoe won this past weekend's race at Talladega Superspeedway to lock up his first career Championship 4 berth, leaving two open spots in this coming Sunday afternoon's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway to wrap up the round of 8.
There is indeed a new championship favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, but it's not Briscoe who has unseated Hamlin.
New NASCAR Cup Series championship favorite emerges
It's Christopher Bell.
The other remaining Joe Gibbs Racing driver is listed at +250, with Hamlin at +290 and Briscoe tied with Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson at +370. Nobody else has odds shorter than +1200.
It makes sense for a couple of reasons. Bell has won two of the three most recent races at Phoenix, is a former Martinsville winner, and is 37 points above the Championship 4 cut line heading into the Martinsville race.
But at the same time, it's far from a sure thing that he'll actually advance.
Team Penske's Ryan Blaney is actually the outright favorite to win at Martinsville (+380), and because he finds himself 47 below the cut line as things currently stand, this scenario would likely set up a points battle between Bell and Larson for the fourth and final Championship 4 spot.
Bell is only one single point ahead of Larson, who is also a former Martinsville winner, heading into Sunday's 500-lap race around the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) Ridgeway, Virginia oval.
As good as he has been at Phoenix, the fact that Bell is considered the outright favorite even over Hamlin and Briscoe, despite being far from locked in while they can both basically relax this coming weekend, is somewhat of a surprise.
It is also worth noting that Blaney, who won his way into the Championship 4 in the Martinsville round of 8 finale in both 2023 and 2024, is listed at +1200 to win the championship, despite being listed as the favorite to lock up a Championship 4 spot by winning this weekend.
The other three title contenders are all listed between +2000 and +3000.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
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