Texas Motor Speedway has only hosted one points race each NASCAR Cup Series season dating back to 2021, and after it lost the All-Star Race following the 2022 season, it has only hosted one race per year, period.
Sunday's 267-lap race, the Wurth 400 presented by Liqui Moly, around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Fort Worth, Texas oval is the 11th of 36 races on the 2025 schedule, and it is set to kick off a run of three straight points races on 1.5-mile, intermediate ovals.
The series is also set to visit Kansas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway before the end of the month, with only a non-points exhibition All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway in between.
It's a crucial stretch in the grand scheme of the season, as drivers and teams with championship aspirations will be looking to garner confidence from some of the sport's more "cookie cutter" venues ahead of the regular season's midway point.
Who will take the checkered flag on Sunday? Here are the top five drivers most likely to win on Sunday.
All odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top 5 NASCAR Cup Series drivers most likely to win at Texas
1. Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports (+370)
Whenever the NASCAR Cup Series visits an intermediate track, Kyle Larson has to be considered among the favorites. But his history at Texas Motor Speedway is a bit suspect. His average finish is only 18.8 in 17 starts, and his lone points win there came in the Gen 6 car in 2021. He did also win the non-points All-Star Race, also in 2021.
2. William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports (+500)
William Byron won at Texas in 2023, and he has been arguably the track's best overall driver over the past few seasons. In his four most recent starts, he has never finished lower than seventh place and has an average finish of 3.25. Texas was also one of his best tracks during his early years at Hendrick Motorsports when he experienced some struggles overall, highlighted by two top 10 finishes in his first three starts.
3. Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing (+700)
Tyler Reddick is a contender whenever the Cup Series visits Texas, having led at least 36 laps in all three points races since the Next Gen era started. He won there in 2022 for Richard Childress Racing and is looking to get not only his first Texas win with 23XI Racing, but his first win of the 2025 season. His average finish in six starts is 9.3, second among active drivers behind Chase Briscoe (+1800) at 9.0.
T-4. Ryan Blaney, Team Penske (+950)
Ryan Blaney is similar to Kyle Larson in that he is an All-Star Race winner at Texas, but he hasn't had a ton of other success to speak of. He is winless in 16 starts and has an average finish of 17.4, though his All-Star win did come in the Next Gen era back in 2022.
T-4. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing (+950)
Among active drivers, Denny Hamlin's three wins at Texas are second most behind only Kyle Busch (+2200) with four, though he hasn't won since 2019. He was in contention to win last year, however, before a late spin when battling Chase Elliott (+1800), after having led more laps than he had led in any Texas race since his 2019 victory.
Full odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
Tune in to Fox Sports 1 at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, May 4 for the live broadcast of the Wurth 400 presented by Liqui Moly from Texas Motor Speedway. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action!