Yuki Tsunoda promotion shows Red Bull F1 crisis is far from over

Not even three races into the 2025 Formula 1 season, we already have a potential in-season driver change, and at the front of the grid, no less.

Among the biggest stories coming out of the first two weekends of the year has been the struggles of Red Bull rookie Liam Lawson.

After two races and one sprint, the New Zealander, who had just 11 starts entering the season, has scored zero points compared to teammate Max Verstappen's 36, with a best finish of 14th. Additionally, in three qualifying sessions, his best result is 18th in Australia, followed by two results of 20th (last).

In what is set to be quite literally the quickest driver change in Red Bull's history, Lawson is expected to be demoted back to Racing Bulls, Red Bull's sister team, in favor of a Yuki Tsunoda promotion, coming as soon as the Japanese Grand Prix. Many credible sources are reporting that the decision for the swap is set to be announced at some time this week.

Yuki Tsunoda is not the solution to the bigger problem with Red Bull’s second seat.

Right from the moment rumors began spreading last season about Red Bull's impending decision to drop Sergio Perez for 2025 after his own run of poor performances, most agreed that Tsunoda should be the one to get the seat alongside Verstappen.

After all, he'd been with Racing Bulls, formerly AlphaTauri, for four full seasons at that point, had shown steady improvement each year, and "ended" the careers of drivers who theoretically should have beaten him in Daniel Ricciardo and Nyck De Vries.

As the story goes, he still controversially didn't get the seat, but here we all are just a few months removed from that decision, and it's already being reversed in his favor.

Having said that, though, is it really in Tsunoda's favor?

Tsunoda is set to become the fifth different driver to partner Verstappen since 2019, when Pierre Gasly replaced Ricciardo, who left on his own terms. Since that time, Gasly, Alexander Albon, Perez, Lawson, and now Tsunoda will have all driven that second Red Bull car.

Excluding Tsunoda, who obviously hasn't driven for the team yet, all of these drivers found little to no success in that second Red Bull car, despite doing quite well before and/or after their stint with the team.

Gasly has since scored a race win and several podium finishes for two different midfield teams after being dropped for the second half of 2019. Albon has also become one of the strongest drivers in the midfield since joining Williams in 2022, constantly pulling out good results, and only being out-qualified twice in that entire time. He has even outqualified and outraced Carlos Sainz Jr. this season and is just one point behind Ferrari by himself as things stand.

Perez was the most successful, scoring five victories with the team along with several other podium finishes, plus two top three finishes in the world championship, but he also had several Q1 and Q2 eliminations each season, and he finished at least 150 points behind Verstappen every time. However, he had been a solid driver in his 10 seasons before joining, scoring several podium finishes and a win across his time with Sauber, Force India, and Racing Point.

In Lawson's case, while he is very inexperienced, he has shown several times that he's a very capable driver, scoring three points finishes across 11 races with Racing Bulls, as well as winning several races and championships in junior categories. He even out-qualified Verstappen in just his third Grand Prix in Singapore two years ago, knocking the Red Bull driver out of the top 10.

While it's fair to say his performances this season have been far below standard, it's also fair to say that being demoted after two races is, in fact, unfair. He was put in a position to fail from the beginning.

While Tsunoda hasn't had that true "breakthrough" race as of yet, he's impressed numerous times in the machinery he's had, notably finishing fourth in the 2021 finale in Abu Dhabi, qualifying third in Brazil last season, and qualifying fifth in Australia this year. He is no doubt on the same level, or even a level higher, than all the drivers previously mentioned.

However, much like his four predecessors, he is likely to struggle with Red Bull as well, and for the exact same reasons. As good as he is, Tsunoda is the latest bandaid rather than the ultimate solution.

The Red Bull cars of this generation are simply too tough to tame, and the team have failed to address it.

Throughout the middle part of 2024 especially, Verstappen constantly complained about the car being difficult to drive, but he still made the best of it as he always does, which ultimately allowed him to hang on to win his fourth title.

This season's RB21 clearly hasn't solved those issues, and while the car's performance has been okay at times in the hands of Verstappen, only due to his God-given talent, it looks to be even more of a handful, and that's for a driver who absolutely loves a twitchy car with a ton of front-end grip and a loose rear.

Unfortunately for literally every other driver on the grid, they are not Max Verstappen, and they simply cannot drive that car. It's built for the absolute best theoretical performance that can possibly be achieved, and seemingly doesn't factor in the fact that unless a computer is in the cockpit and perfectly drives the car, it cannot be consistently pushed to its limit.

Drivers feel the rear end stepping out in all three areas of the corner – entry, apex, and exit – and lose their confidence to push the car with each passing corner. Verstappen even cryptically revealed this himself during the Chinese Grand Prix weekend.

"Our car is extremely tough. I think if you put Liam in the Racing Bulls car, he will go faster. I really think so. (The Racing Bulls car) is easier to drive than ours... They’re very close to me. Maybe that also says something, but I don’t know."

Max Verstappen

With all the struggles that clearly talented drivers have had with that car, even before this generation of rules, some have even labelled the second Red Bull car as "cursed". While that's truly not the case, given the fact that the car is exactly the same as the one Verstappen drives each weekend, it does show the critical situation Red Bull now find themselves in, where only one driver is able to score points consistently through little fault of the other driver.

There are even rumors spreading that Perez hoped Tsunoda would never get promoted to Red Bull, not out of spite, but because he didn't want to see another young, promising driver suffer on that side of the garage, and potentially ruin his career. Such is the mysterious, beastly, and nearly impossible challenge that these Red Bull cars present.

Where do Red Bull go from here if Tsunoda's promotion turns out to be a failure?

It's a very real possibility, and a genuine question to ask. Heck, what if Lawson out-qualifies Tsunoda at the next race in Japan when he returns to Racing Bulls? It's a safe bet to suggest that Red Bull themselves don't even know that answer.

Tsunoda is being put in a terribly difficult position as someone who is still so young. He has had no preseason testing to feel out a difficult car like Lawson has, he is in an environment where pressure is turned up to 11 from the moment your car is lifted off the jack, and he is at a team that have doubted his abilities for years, until very recently.

There's just no way that they can promote rookie Isack Hadjar, even if he sets the world on fire, right? Albon and Lawson, who had just 12 and 11 races of experience beforehand, both struggled mightily once they arrived, so what would make them think Hadjar, who has just two races of experience, will fare any better? They would just be repeating the same mistake for the third or fourth time, and the second in just three races.

Red Bull don't have anyone else they can promote, such is their depleted bank of young drivers from a junior program that is quickly becoming pointless and obsolete. They'd be out of their minds to promote Arvid Lindblad, hands-down their best prospect currently racing in Formula 2, without even a single race of experience, and risk ruining their possible Verstappen replacement.

Why bring up Verstappen's name here? Ultimately, the constant rotating cast of drivers could possibly have more consequences than simply keeping Lawson in the seat, even if his struggles persist.

Dutch media are reporting that Verstappen is not happy about the decision to drop Lawson for Tsunoda. The four-time reigning world champion is miffed with the team choosing to victimize a driver he clearly sympathizes for, rather than looking to fix the obvious problems with the car that he's pointed out for over a year now.

"Last year, I didn’t think the difference between (Lawson) and Tsunoda was that big. Otherwise the team wouldn’t make the choice to put him in at Red Bull either."

Max Verstappen

Given all the rumors about whether he will even stay at Red Bull for the duration of his contract that runs through 2028, angering the hottest commodity on the grid, who is crucially in your possession, is not a problem you should be getting into, even without all the issues you already have.

And what happens if Verstappen leaves, perhaps even unexpectedly? Sure, they can pay a boatload of money to another star driver on the grid to join the team, but as mentioned, nobody is Max Verstappen, and there's no guarantee that even someone like George Russell or Charles Leclerc can handle this car and push it to its full capabilities.

If they can't attract a top driver, and at this rate, that possibility is becoming increasingly likely, they're going to be stuck with their inexperienced junior drivers, namely Lindblad and someone like Lawson, Tsunoda, or Hadjar. With respect to all those drivers, that would probably form one of the weaker lineups on the grid, and given how hard it is to drive these cars, plus their varying levels of skill, experience, and top results, it spells disaster.

Simply put, Red Bull are in crisis. Key engineers and management figures have left, the car is becoming harder and harder to drive with no solutions, their performance is slipping race by race, their star driver possibly wants to leave, and they have no one to plug the holes.

Unless they come out of the gates in 2026 and build a car that's both stable and fast, or best-case scenario, they find a lineup that can score consistently together, there's no certainty that this team gets out of this crisis, either.