2016 IndyCar Championship Breakdown: Simon Pagenaud

Before the IndyCar season finale on Sept. 18, we break down whether or not Simon Pagenaud will actually win the 2016 Verizon IndyCar Series title.

Simon Pagenaud has been IndyCar‘s favorite son since almost the beginning of the season. The Frenchman has led the championship points race since Apr. 2 and has maintained a comfortable view from the top for most of the year.

The only thing standing between Pagenaud and his first ever Astor Cup now is an opponent close to home: his teammate Will Power, who also happens to be the 2014 Verizon IndyCar Series champion.

If Pagenaud can pull victory off at Sonoma Raceway on Sept. 18, it will be a remarkable comeback for the No. 22 Team Penske driver. He struggled mightily in 2015 and finished 11th overall, and in just one year he could jump ten places – and all the way to the top. But is his championship a certainty? Not necessarily.

Here’s how we break down Simon Pagenaud’s chances to capture the 2016 Verizon IndyCar Series championship:

Pagenaud’s History at Sonoma

If Pagenaud has one clear disadvantage in the title fight, it’s that Power has an excellent history at Sonoma Raceway. Pagenaud, on the other hand, doesn’t.

Power has more starts at Sonoma than Pagenaud, and Pagenaud has never won at the track. Here’s a detailed breakdown of his history at the championship venue:

2011: 15th
2012: 7th
2013: 5th
2014: 3rd
2015: 16th

That’s only one podium finish and one Top 5 for the Frenchman at the pivotal venue, and the key fact to remember is that Pagenaud must finish in the Top 5 next Sunday if he wants to absolutely guarantee himself the championship. Based on his past performance at Sonoma, that’s not necessarily an easy task.

Does that mean he can’t do it? Of course not. But for this specific race, are you going to feel more confident in the guy who’s only reached the bottom step of the podium once, or the driver who has won the Grand Prix of Sonoma three times?

Pagenaud’s 2016 Season

Simon Pagenaud’s 2016 season has been as buzzworthy as Juan Pablo Montoya‘s 2015 near-title run. Like Montoya, Pagenaud took control of the championship early and held onto it all the way to the final race. And Pagenaud’s four wins are double the times Montoya drove to Victory Lane last year.

But something else the two have in common are late-season bumps in what was supposed to be an easy road. Montoya had the 24th place finish at Iowa that allowed Scott Dixon to pounce back into the picture; Pagenaud had his car giving it up and making him 18th at Pocono. Pagenaud will not be able to make any mistakes at Sonoma, or Power will jump on them.

Something that can help him is his qualifying record. Pagenaud’s six Verizon P1 Awards are the most by a single driver in 2016 by a large margin; the three drivers behind him are tied with two apiece. If Pagenaud can get out front and stay there, then that Top 5 is a possibility.

Whether he captures the title on Sept. 18 or not Pagenaud should be incredibly proud of what he’s accomplished this year. Last year everyone was wondering if he had a future with Team Penske; now he’s established himself as part of the future for IndyCar’s most prominent organization.

Next: Dixon Gives Championship Advice To Power, Pagenaud

Can He Win?

The 2016 IndyCar championship is Pagenaud’s to lose, because he’s in control of the situation. All Pagenaud has to do is finish in the Top 5 at Sonoma and it doesn’t matter what Power does. Now, a Top 5 finish in IndyCar is no easy thing – not with the elite level of competition. Given that and the fact that Power will give Pagenaud a heck of a fight, we’d call Pagenaud a slight favorite for the title – let’s say 60 percent. It’s likely he’ll win but let’s not hand him the Astor Cup just yet.

The 2016 GoPro Grand Prix of Sonoma takes place Sunday, Sept. 18 at Sonoma Raceway.