Sebastien Bourdais opened up the 2017 Verizon IndyCar Series campaign with a head-turning last-to-first victory. The question is, will he continue driving like the 4-time Champ Car champion he is, or was this win simply a fluke?
It had been since August of 2014 since a driver had started in last place and won an IndyCar race. Scott Dixon drove his Chevrolet to victory lane after starting in 22nd place a Mid-Ohio, a track where he is a 5-time victor at.
Sebastien Bourdais, 38, pulled it off on the tight streets of St. Petersburg after a crash in qualifying that forced him to start all the way back in 21st place.
He did use pit strategy and caught a caution at the right time to assist him in this victory. However, he was moving through the field even before luck kicked in. He ended up winning the race by over 10 seconds ahead of 2nd place Simon Pagenaud.
Bourdais has won at least one race in each of the past four seasons, including 2017. However, he has not finished higher than 10th place in the championship standings in any of the previous three seasons. So was it simply a fluke that this victory came at the season opener, or is Bourdais really back to his championship-winning ways?
It will be tough for Bourdais to win a championship this season, no doubt. He is still driving for one of the smallest teams in the sport, Dale Coyne Racing. But will he at least be in contention throughout the season? Let’s look at recent history to give us a look.
Recent History
Bourdais’ next victory following his past four victories has been an average of 9.5 races later, with the shortest span coming between his wins at Detroit and Milwaukee in 2015 (four races). So it is reasonably possible that he will get back to victory lane at least once before the season is done. However, two victories in a season has never been enough to win an IndyCar championship in the seasons that Bourdais has driven.
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Bourdais’ average finish following each of his past four victories has been 10th place. This is actually pretty strong for a driver that has not finished higher than 10th place in the championship in any of the three seasons that his previous four victories have come in. If he can beat his top finish following his past four victories, which is an 8th place finish at Detroit following a victory at Detroit last season (doubleheader), that will be an even better indicator. He will have to do it at Long Beach, where his top finish over the past three seasons is a solid 6th place in 2015.
However, keep in mind that this is speaking in terms of a 10th place championship driver. This is not speaking in terms of a series champion. So he’s going to have to do more.
Here is what’s most alarming. Bourdais’ average finish of the 34 races that have come between each of his past five victories is 11.8, so 12th place. That low of an average finish over that large of a sample size of races is not something that we see from championship-caliber drivers. The only way that Bourdais will be in the running to win this season’s title is if he can greatly improve on his average finish of races that he does not win.
Looking to the Future
Bourdais needs to improve upon each of these three trends listed above, and comfortably. If that happens, he could be in contention for the championship by the end of this season.
First off, he can’t allow nine or 10 races to pass before winning again. Next, he can’t follow up his win at St. Pete with a non-top 10 finish at Long Beach. And finally, he has to average far better than a 12th place finish in races that he does not win. The key to success is consistency, and that is the major theme among each of these trends.
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Bourdais proved in Champ Car that he is capable of doing all of this. He won 31 races of the 73 he competed in and won four championships to go along with it. The modern-day IndyCar Series is different, however, as he has won only five races in 90 starts. But now is his time to step it up and prove the critics wrong. It definitely will not be an easy task, but he currently sits 12 points above the rest of the field in a position better than anybody else: 1st place.