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The Indianapolis 500 Champion Overcame Unlikely Odds Once Again

By Asher Fair

May 29, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Verizon IndyCar Series driver Takuma Sato kisses the Borg Warner Trophy after winning the 101st Running of the Indianapolis 500 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
May 29, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Verizon IndyCar Series driver Takuma Sato kisses the Borg Warner Trophy after winning the 101st Running of the Indianapolis 500 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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For the second consecutive season, the Indianapolis 500 champion was not a pre-race favorite. Unpredictability has become a growing trend in IndyCar, particularly in the Indy 500.

In 2011, we saw Dan Wheldon win the Indy 500 after leader JR Hildebrand crashed in the final turn. Then in 2012, we saw Dario Franchitti come from 29th after a pit road accident to win the Indy 500. In 2013, we saw Tony Kanaan win the Indy 500 in his 12th attempt before we saw Ryan Hunter-Reay win it the following year after starting in 19th, the lowest starting position for a winner since 1987.

A year removed from Ryan Hunter-Reay’s win, we saw Juan Pablo Montoya pull off something similar to Franchitti. Montoya was involved in an early minor wreck and fell to 30th, but rallied back to win the race.

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Last season, we saw rookie Alexander Rossi save fuel to win the Indy 500 on fumes despite his odds being +6600 (66:1) according to Heavy.com. While we did see Takuma Sato win from the 4th starting position and collect an IndyCar record 137 points from the win, his odds were not great to come home victorious either.

A driver starting 4th or better had not won the Indy 500 since Dario Franchitti started from 3rd and won in 2010, and no driver had won the race from the top 10 since Dan Wheldon won it in 2011. So it stands to reason that even though Sato qualified 4th, he didn’t have great odds to win the race, especially given that his career-high finish in seven previous Indy 500 attempts was 13th.

But other drivers starting towards the front had good odds, unlike Sato. Despite a polesitter not having won the Indy 500 since 2009, race polesitter Scott Dixon was given 6:1 odds by Odds Shark, with Sato down at 15:1 ahead of just nine drivers not included in the 20:1 field betting option.

Even more generous to Dixon and skeptical of Sato was MyTopSportsBooks.com, who had Dixon as the 5:1 favorite to win the race with Sato all the way down at 20:1. In their blurb about Fernando Alonso having 14:1 odds, they stated the following:

"“Formula 1 drivers wheeling at the Brickyard is nothing new, but usually we’re talking about guys like Sebastian Bourdais, who was the second-fastest Sebastian driving for Red Bull’s junior squad, and Takuma Sato.”"

Coming into this year’s Indy 500, if anyone had predicted a Formula One driver to win it, that driver was in all likelihood Fernando Alonso, not Takuma Sato. The odds back that up, as does the quote.

The past two Indy 500 champions, Alexander Rossi and Takuma Sato, were not anywhere near favorites to win the race, as you can see with the various piece of evidence from above.

What’s even more telling about how unexpected their victories were was the fact that neither one of them had a primary sponsor coming into the race they won. NAPA Auto Parts was added to Rossi’s car as the primary sponsor last year right before qualifying, and Ruoff Home Mortgage stepped up to sponsor Sato’s car after qualifying this year. Both long-shot gambles paid off for the sponsors.

Why?

Because of the unpredictability of IndyCar and particularly the Indy 500. And that unpredictability, which has led to six different winners in as many races this season, could lead to more unexpected winners in the future, further adding to the excitement of the sport and the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” itself.

Even this season, it wasn’t like Sato was the only new face up front. Rookie Ed Jones finished in a career-high 3rd place, with Max Chilton leading the most laps of the race before finishing in a career-high 4th.

Who would’ve called that? Two Formula One drivers not named Fernando Alonso finishing in the top 4 with Sato and Chilton, and another one rounding out the top 7 with Alexander Rossi.

Also, who would’ve called three of the top 4 finishers scoring career-high IndyCar (not just Indy 500) finishes, which has not happened at the Indy 500 since 2005?

Given the recent history of the Indy 500 with four first-time winners in the past five years and 12 in the past 18 years, overcoming the odds is truly becoming a trend. Do you think that trend will continue into future years? Which driver will become the next first-time winner?

Next: Is Takuma Sato A Legitimate Championship Contender?

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