NASCAR Playoffs: Winners, Contenders, and What Ifs

Win and you are in. It really is that simple, but is it really? What happens if we have more than 16 winners in the regular season NASCAR Cup races?

There are five races left before the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs start. A total of 13 drivers have secured a spot with a regular season race win. As of today, that means there are only three spots available in the playoffs. What happens if we have five new winners in the remaining five regular season NASCAR Cup races?

There have been 10 different winners in the last 10 races. This pattern increases the probability of there being another new winner before the regular season ends. The odds aren’t far-fetched. Young drivers like Ryan Blaney and Austin Dillon have both won a race this season. Ricky Stenhouse has won not one but two races. Think about it.

LISTEN: NASCAR: We Talking About Playoffs?

The Winners

It is not surprising that Furniture Row Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. and seven-time NASCAR champion Jimmie Johnson are leading the field into the playoffs with three wins each. Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski also have two wins. Other familiar faces who will contend for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series title thanks to a win locking them in the playoffs include Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne.

The Contenders

Chase Elliott, Jamie McMurray and Matt Kenseth currently round out the 16 spots for the playoffs. The driver of the No. 24, Chase Elliott, is in for now and would be the first driver to enter the playoffs without driving into Victory Lane thanks to all the points he has accumulated. In 21 races, Elliott has six top 5’s, 12 top 10’s, and two stage wins keeping him alive in the playoff hunt.

McMurray, the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing, does not have any race wins or stage wins, but he is riding on Elliott’s bumper in the 15th spot. Will McMurray hang on and make the playoffs to compete with teammate Kyle Larson?

Kenseth, who has two stage wins, is holding down the final playoff spot for now. The ‘Quiet Assassin’ seems to be so close to a win that we can all feel it each week. Hopefully, Kenseth won’t continue to come up short as the regular season comes to a close. With his future being uncertain, any NASCAR fan who is struggling with the “new NASCAR” should be rooting for the veteran driver to at least secure a spot in the playoffs to contend for another Cup title.

What If…Maybe

Now that we have established the winners and the contenders, let’s look at the what if’s…the maybes. What if five different drivers land in Victory Lane in the remaining five races of the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series regular season? As we know, the 16 drivers who advance through to the playoffs are chosen primarily on wins during the regular season. Key word: “primarily.”

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Heading into the upcoming road course race at Watkins Glen, Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and Jamie McMurray are all knocking on the door of the playoffs. A win would almost certainly secure their position. Each of these drivers (excluding Joey Logano’s encumbered win), have come close, but haven’t seen the winner’s circle this season. Bowyer has had three 2nd place finishes, Elliott was runner-up in Michigan, McMurray was close at Talladega, while Kenseth’s best finish this season was 3rd place in Atlanta.

Let’s not forget about our budding Cup rookies. Sunoco Rookie of the Year contenders, Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez, are in the top 20 of the driver’s and playoff standings after securing a handful of top 10 finishes. A few stage wins, more top 5 finishes, and of course, a win can quickly change their fate.

All of these drivers along with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and AJ Allmendinger (we are headed to Watkins Glen, after all) can win. Maybe, just maybe, we will have five new winners in the last five regular season Cup races. If we have more than 16 race winners this season, then the drivers with the most race wins will move on. If a driver only has one win and we do indeed end up with more than 16 winners, that driver may not move on. Wouldn’t that be something for NASCAR to ponder?

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On the latest episode of All Turns No Brakes, a NASCAR podcast for fans by fans, we discuss Kyle Busch’s win at Pocono, which secure his spot in the playoffs. We ask what’s up with Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano and Clint Bowyer. We also ponder the question, ”When will it click for Chase Elliott?” Check it out. Join the debate with Rene and I as we talk all things NASCAR in an unapologetic, humorous and unfiltered way.

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