NASCAR: Using Phoenix track averages to predict the final Championship 4 driver
By Asher Fair
Who will the fourth and final driver be in NASCAR’s Championship 4 if Phoenix track averages have something to say about it?
The fourth and final spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in under two weeks is still up for grabs with five drivers vying to take it. They will have one last chance to do so in this weekend’s Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.
Those drivers are Brad Keselowski, who is currently in the fourth and final Championship 4 spot, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson, as Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have already locked up their spots in the Championship 4.
Here are the current standings among the five drivers fighting for that fourth and final Championship 4 spot.
| Rank | Driver | Car, Team, Engine | Points | Behind |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | #2, Team Penske, Ford | 4111 | IN |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota | 4092 | -19 |
| 6 | Ryan Blaney | #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford | 4089 | -22 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet | 4062 | -49 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet | 4060 | -51 |
NOTE: Italics denote that that driver is currently in the fourth and final Championship 4 spot.
Which of those five drivers will ultimately end up joining Busch, Harvick and Truex Jr. in the Championship 4 if past track averages at Phoenix dictate each of those five drivers’ results at the track this Sunday? All average finishes are from DriverAverages.com.
Brad Keselowski
- Average Phoenix finish: 14.00
- Assuming Brad Keselowski finishes in 14th place in both stages and in the race, he will score 23 points (0 in stages 1 and 2 and 23 in the final stage), bringing his point total from 4,111 to 4,134.
Denny Hamlin
- Average Phoenix finish: 10.83
- Assuming Denny Hamlin finishes in 11th place (rounded up) in both stages and in the race, he will score 26 points (0 in stages 1 and 2 and 26 in the final stage), bringing his point total from 4,092 to 4,118.
Ryan Blaney
- Average Phoenix finish: 13.67
- Assuming Ryan Blaney finishes in 13th place (rounded down because Brad Keselowski already finished in 14th place) in both stages and in the race, he will score 24 points (0 in stages 1 and 2 and 24 in the final stage), bringing his point total from 4,089 to 4,113.
Chase Elliott
- Average Phoenix finish: 9.67
- Assuming Chase Elliott finishes in 10th place in both stages and in the race, he will score 29 points (1 in stages 1 and 2 and 27 in the final stage), bringing his points total from 4,062 to 4,091.
Jimmie Johnson
- Average Phoenix finish: 8.96
- Assuming Jimmie Johnson finishes in 9th place in both stages and in the race, he will score 32 points (2 in stages 1 and 2 and 28 in the final stage), bringing his points total from 4,060 to 4,092.
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Therefore, if past track averages dictate Sunday’s results in the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, Arizona among those five drivers, Brad Keselowski will be the driver that joins Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. in this year’s Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida, while Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson will all be battling with previously eliminated 2017 playoff drivers for 5th place in the final standings.
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Who will the fourth and final Championship 4 driver end up being? Tune in to the Can-Am 500 from Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, Arizona this Sunday, November 12th at 2:30 PM ET on NBC to find out.