Formula 1: Which young driver will win a championship first?

There look like there will be a lot of changes in the Formula 1 driver lineup over the next few seasons. Which young driver will be first to win a championship?

There are several young drivers with a lot of talent and potential who have recently started driving in Formula 1, and there are a few young drivers with a lot of talent and potential who appear to be on the verge of landing their first full-time rides in Formula 1.

Max Verstappen, 20, currently drives for Aston Martin Red Bull Racing. Charles Leclerc, 20, currently drives for Alfa Romeo Sauber. Esteban Ocon, 21, currently drives for Sahara Force India. Pierre Gasly, 22, currently drives for Scuderia Toro Rosso.

George Russell, 20, and Lando Norris, 18, are both Formula 2 drivers in positions to land their first career Formula 1 rides in the near future. In fact, they currently sits in first and second place, respectively, in the Formula 2 driver standings. Russell is a member of the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport junior driver program and Norris is a reserve driver for McLaren.

Which of these young and talented drivers will be the first to win a Formula 1 championship?

Verstappen appears to be well ahead of the game, as he has already earned four Formula 1 victories at the age of 20. Meanwhile, no other drivers in Formula 1 history have earned even one victory by their 21st birthdays.

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However, Red Bull Racing do not appear to have what it takes to compete for championships against Mercedes or Scuderia Ferrari at this point, and Verstappen’s contract with the team, which he signed late last season, extends through the conclusion of the 2020 season.

As a result, it will be hard for Gasly to compete for championships even if he replaces Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull Racing next season, which is very much a possibility seeing as how Toro Rosso are the Red Bull Racing junior team.

If Norris lands a Formula 1 ride, he would likely land a ride with McLaren, as he is their reserve driver. It will be even harder for him to compete for championships driving for McLaren, one of the sport’s mid-pack teams, as either the replacement for two-time Formula 1 champion Fernando Alonso or Stoffel Vandoorne next season.

Leclerc has a good chance to win his first championship in the near future. As a member of the Ferrari Driver Academy, he has a legitimate chance to replace 2007 Formula 1 champion Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari in the near future, perhaps even next season, which would likely instantly give him a chance to compete for championships assuming Ferrari let him battle with four-time Formula 1 champion Sebastian Vettel.

Ocon and Russell are both Mercedes junior drivers, so if and/or when they get promoted to drive for Mercedes in Formula 1, they would likely instantly have good chances to compete for championships.

However, Mercedes have four-time Formula 1 champion Lewis Hamilton under contract through the 2020 season, and they have Valtteri Bottas under contract through the 2019 season with an option for the 2020 season, so the earliest season during which Ocon and/or Russell could drive for Mercedes would likely be the 2021 season, and that’s assuming that they stay within the Mercedes organization in the meantime and do well driving for whichever teams they drive for.

With all of that in mind, if I had to to bet on which of these young drivers will be the first to win a championship, I would bet on Leclerc.

Which young Formula 1 driver do you believe will be the first to win a championship? How many of these young drivers do you believe will win at least one championship, and when do you believe that they will do so? How many championships do you believe that each of them will win?