Five Formula 1 drivers are set to face mathematical elimination from championship contention in the 2018 Italian Grand Prix this Sunday.
The 14th race of the 21-race 2018 Formula 1 season is scheduled to take place this Sunday, September 2. In this race, the Italian Grand Prix, five drivers are set to face elimination from championship contention.
A total of 11 drivers who are set to enter this 53-lap race around the 11-turn, 3.600-mile (5.793-kilometer) Autodromo Nazionale Monza road course in Monza, Italy still have a chance to win this season’s driver championship, but only six of them are guaranteed to remain mathematically eligible to win the championship once the race concludes.
Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton currently leads the driver standings with 231 points. A total of 200 points are on the table for each individual driver heading into this race since eight races remain in the season and race victories are worth 25 points.
Because of this, all drivers who are not within 200 points of Hamilton, meaning all drivers who have not scored at least 31 points so far this season, have already been mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
There are nine of these drivers, and they are Williams Martini Racing teammates Sergey Sirotkin and Lance Stroll, Alfa Romeo Sauber teammates Marcus Ericsson and Charles Leclerc, Scuderia Toro Rosso teammates Brendon Hartley and Pierre Gasly, McLaren’s Stoffel Vandoorne, Haas’ Romain Grosjean and Renault Sport’s Carlos Sainz Jr.
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Once the Italian Grand Prix is completed, just 175 points will be on the table for each driver throughout the season’s final seven races.
Renault’s Nico Hulkenberg, Haas’ Kevin Magnussen, McLaren’s Fernando Alonso and Racing Point Force India teammates Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon are all at risk of falling at least 175 points behind Hamilton for the lead of the driver standings following the Italian Grand Prix. If this happens, they will be mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
Hulkenberg, who currently sits in seventh place in the driver standings, has scored 52 points so far this season. He trails Hamilton by 179 points, so he will need to outscore the Briton by at least four points in the Italian Grand Prix to remain in championship contention after it ends.
Magnussen has scored 49 points so far this season and sits in eighth place in the driver standings. He trails Hamilton by 182 points, so he will need to outscore the four-time Formula 1 champion by at least seven points in Monza to remain in championship contention with seven races to go in the season.
Alonso, who currently sits in ninth place in the driver standings, has scored 44 points so far this season. Because of the fact that he trails Hamilton by 187 points, he will need to outscore the 33-year-old by at least 12 points in this Sunday’s race to remain in championship contention after this weekend concludes.
Perez has scored 40 points so far this season. He currently sits in 10th place in the driver standings and trails Hamilton by 191 points because of it. He will need to outscore Hamilton by at least 16 points in the Italian Grand Prix to remain in championship contention heading into the following race, the Singapore Grand Prix.
Finally, Ocon, who currently sits in 11th place in the driver standings, has scored 37 points so far this season. As a result, he trails Hamilton by 194 points, meaning that in order to remain in championship contention beyond the conclusion of the Italian Grand Prix, he will need to outscore the Mercedes driver by at least 19 points in that race.
None of these five drivers have a legitimate chance to win this season’s driver championship anyway, but it looks extremely likely that the Italian Grand Prix will be the race in which their fates are sealed.
The first two drivers above Hulkenberg in the driver standings are Aston Martin Red Bull Racing teammates Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo. They currently have 120 and 118 points and sit in fifth and six place, respectively, in the driver standings, and they will also likely be mathematically eliminated from championship contention in the near future.
However, even if Hamilton wins the Italian Grand Prix, he will only be able to climb from 231 points to 256 points, which is 136 points ahead of Verstappen and 138 points ahead of Ricciardo. As a result, the 20-year-old Dutchman and 29-year-old Australian are safe from mathematical elimination for at least another race.
Ferrari teammates Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen currently sit in second and third place in the driver standings with 214 points and 146 points, respectively, and Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas currently sits in fourth in the standings with 144 points, so they are not at risk of being mathematically eliminated from championship contention in the Italian Grand Prix, either.
With Lewis Hamilton leading Sebastian Vettel by 17 points in the driver standings with eight races remaining in the 2018 Formula 1 season and Kimi Raikkonen being another 68 points behind Vettel in third place, it is likely that this season’s championship, just like last season’s, will come down to Hamilton and Vettel. Tune in to ESPN2 this Sunday, September 2 at 9:10 a.m. ET to see who all will be mathematically eliminated from championship contention in the Italian Grand Prix.