Formula 1: Is Sebastian Vettel the new championship favorite?

Following his dominant performance in the Belgian Grand Prix, is Sebastian Vettel the new favorite to win the 2018 Formula 1 championship?

Four-time Formula 1 championship Sebastian Vettel of Scuderia Ferrari returned from the summer break having been outscored by four-time Formula 1 champion Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport by a total of 32 points in the last two Formula 1 races.

After leading Hamilton by eight points in the driver standings heading into the German Grand Prix, Vettel trailed Hamilton by 24 points in the standings exiting the Hungarian Grand Prix. Hamilton won both races, while Vettel crashed out of the German Grand Prix and finished in second place in the Hungarian Grand Prix.

But after his dominant performance last Sunday in the Belgian Grand Prix, Vettel is back to within 17 points (231 to 214) of Hamilton in the driver standings. Is he now the favorite to win this season’s championship and become the third driver in Formula 1 history to reach five career championships?

It has been evident this season that Ferrari have improved more than Mercedes have since last season to the point where they have had the faster car in the majority of the first 13 races of the 21-race 2018 season.

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Vettel has won four races on outright pace while Hamilton has won three. However, Vettel has blown far more opportunities this season that Hamilton has, allowing Hamilton to capitalize and collect more points than he probably should have in several of the season’s first 13 races.

Hamilton has earned two victories in races during which he has not had an advantage in outright pace while Vettel has earned just one. If not for Vettel’s blown opportunities, the 31-year German might actually have a pretty sizable lead over the 33-year-old Briton in the driver standings.

Vettel’s crash while comfortably leading the German Grand Prix with 16 laps to go caused a 38-point swing in the driver standings alone in favor of Hamilton, and that is just one of his several blown opportunities so far this season.

Hamilton was running in fourth place at the time of the accident, and he ended up winning because he did not pit during the ensuing safety car period while the other two drivers who were running in front of him did.

If Vettel can minimize, if not eliminate, his mistakes over the final eight races of the season, than he will be the favorite to beat Hamilton to five career Formula 1 championships, as Ferrari have clearly had an overall advantage over Mercedes this season. However, minimizing/eliminating his mistakes may be a challenge given how much has struggled to do so up to this point in the season.

Will Sebastian Vettel capture his fifth career Formula 1 championship before Lewis Hamilton is able to do so? With eight races remaining in the 2018 season, the battle between these two four-time champions looks as though it will come down to the wire.