NASCAR: Will Noah Gragson replace Jimmie Johnson in 2021?

With Noah Gragson tipped to sign with JR Motorsports in the 2019 NASCAR Xfinity Series season, is he the favorite to replace Jimmie Johnson at Hendrick Motorsports in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season?

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season does not start for roughly two and a half years. However, with Truck Series driver Noah Gragson having been tipped to replace Elliott Sadler at JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series next season, the 20-year-old driver of the #18 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota could be in a position to move to the Cup Series by that time.

JR Motorsports is co-owned by Hendrick Motorsports owner Rick Hendrick, so Gragson would be putting himself in a solid position to land a Cup Series ride with one of the sport’s top teams by replacing the 43-year-old Sadler, who recently announced that he will be retiring after the 2018 comes to an end, as the driver of the #1 Chevrolet.

Two of Hendrick Motorsports’ four current drivers have contracts that are set to expire at the end of the 2020 season. Chase Elliott signed a contract to drive for the team through at least the 2022 season, but seven-time Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson and Alex Bowman are only under contract through the 2020 season. The contract situation of William Byron is unknown, although it is believed that a bunch of his sponsors are set to return for at least a few more seasons.

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Assuming Johnson, 42, continues driving until his contract expires, Hendrick Motorsports would be in a position to replace him in the 2021 season. Either they will have to choose between him and another driver or the seven-time Cup Series champion will retire.

Johnson is having was has been by far his worst Cup Series season of his 17-year career as a full-time driver in the series. He currently sits in 14th place in the championship standings, and he has recorded just two top five finishes and eight top 10 finishes through the first 24 races of the season. He has not won a race this season, as his most recent victory came in the race at Dover International Speedway at the beginning of June of 2017.

Johnson’s current win drought of 47 races is the longest of his career, and it is nearly double the length of what was his previous career-long win drought of 24 races. At this point, it would surprise no one if his current win drought rose to at least twice the length of that 24-race win drought within the next few weeks. In fact, the odds that it won’t reach 48 races by the end of the day today are extremely small.

All of the Chevrolet teams have struggled to get a handle on the new Camaro ZL1, which was introduced this season, but Johnson hasn’t even come anywhere close to being the top Chevrolet driver this year.

The new car is certainly not the only factor to blame for Johnson’s struggles, which have become more and more common over the last few seasons. Elliott earned his first career Cup Series victory in the race at Watkins Glen International earlier this year in his #9 Chevrolet and Bowman, who is only in his first full season driving for Hendrick Motorsports, has had a season roughly as good as Johnson’s in his #88 Chevrolet. He sits in 15th place in the championship standings, and he has done so with two top five finishes and nine top 10 finishes.

If Johnson gets a contract to continue driving for Hendrick Motorsports for the 2021 season, it would be surprising given his recent decline in performance as well as the fact that his longtime sponsor Lowe’s announced that this will be their final season as a sponsor in the Cup Series.

As a result, Gragson could be in a position to replace Johnson as the driver of the #48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet when the 2021 season rolls around assuming he signs with JR Motorsports for the 2019 season as Sadler’s replacement behind the wheel of the #1 Chevrolet and assuming that he continues driving for the team in the 2020 season.

While Bowman’s contract with Hendrick Motorsports also expires at the end of the 2020 season, it is likely that he will return to the team, as he is only 25 years old and has shown a ton of potential in his first full season driving for the team thus far. As a result, it would likely be Johnson who Gragson would replace.

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Will Noah Gragson be the driver who replaces seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson as the driver of the #48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet? If so, will he do so in the 2021 season, or will Johnson sign another contract extension to continue driving for the team through at least 2021?

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