Formula 1: Russian Grand Prix is Sebastian Vettel’s final hope in 2018

While the 2018 Formula 1 championship battle is all but over, Sebastian Vettel is still mathematically alive. But the Russian Grand Prix is effectively his final hope.

After Scuderia Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel dominated the 13th race of the 21-race 2018 Formula 1 season, the Belgian Grand Prix, to pull to within 17 points over Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton in the driver standings, many people started to believe that the 31-year-old German had a great chance to beat the 33-year-old Briton to five career Formula 1 championships.

Heading into the 14th race of the season, the Italian Grand Prix, Ferrari had a speed advantage over Mercedes. As a result, Vettel and teammate Kimi Raikkonen locked out the front row on the starting grid.

But a mistake on the race’s first lap sent Vettel to the back of the pack, and Hamilton was able to capitalize. He ended up passing Raikkonen, for the lead late in the race before going on to win it. Vettel finished in fourth place, and Hamilton’s lead in the driver standings grew to 30 points over him as a result of it.

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The following race, the Singapore Grand Prix, was another race in which Ferrari were supposed to have an advantage over Mercedes. But after what was pretty much a perfect qualifying lap by Hamilton to take the pole position, he dominated the race while Vettel finished in third place after starting there.

As a result, with six races remaining on the 2018 schedule, Hamilton leads Vettel by 40 points (281 to 241) in the driver standings, and he has all of the momentum given the fact that he has won four of the last five races and has recorded six consecutive top two finishes. For all intents and purposes, the championship battle is effectively over even though Vettel is mathematically still able to win it.

But the fact is, Vettel still has a chance to beat his championship rival to five career Formula 1 championships. That said, this chance pretty much can go out the window in this weekend’s race, the Russian Grand Prix, even though there is no way by which he can be mathematically eliminated in it.

Looking at the big picture, this race is Vettel’s final hope as far as staying in championship contention is concerned.

Hamilton is riding a hot streak while Vettel is coming off of two consecutive disappointing results. Vettel has never won the Russian Grand Prix before, so it will be hard for him to maximize whatever advantage he might have over Hamilton this weekend, especially considering the fact that Hamilton is a two-time winner of the race and Mercedes have won the race in every season since it was added to the schedule in the 2014 season.

If Vettel wins the race, the farthest he can be from Hamilton in the driver standings with five races remaining on the schedule is 33 points. This assumes that Hamilton finishes in second place. With Vettel having already stated that his focus is on winning each of the final six races of the season, he needs to start now.

If Vettel doesn’t win the race, Hamilton likely will. But even if Hamilton doesn’t win it, by not winning, Vettel will need to count on Hamilton to have a disastrous race if he wants to make up a significant amount of points over him.

Finally, if this doesn’t happen, Vettel will once again face a sizable deficit to Hamilton in the driver standings after the race concludes. The only thing that will change from this race to the next is the fact that he will be doing so with five races remaining on the schedule instead of six. Another thing that will stay the same is the fact that he will be doing so without momentum.

The bottom line is that the Russian Grand Prix is a must-win race for Vettel if he still believes that he can tie Juan Manuel Fangio for second place on the all-time Formula 1 championships list with his fifth career title this year.

Will Sebastian Vettel secure a great result in the Russian Grand Prix to remain within striking distance of Lewis Hamilton in the Formula 1 driver standings, or will Hamilton continue to show why the championship battle is all but over with yet another dominant performance?