Formula 1: Will Charles Leclerc win his first career race in 2019?

Charles Leclerc is set to drive for Scuderia Ferrari for the first time in the 2019 Formula 1 season. Will he record his first career victory next year?

Charles Leclerc is currently in his rookie season in Formula 1 driving for Alfa Romeo Sauber, and he has had more success than most if not all drivers who have driven for the Swiss team in recent seasons.

The 20-year-old Monegasque has racked up 21 points through the first 16 races of the 21-race 2018 season. He sits in 15th place in the driver standings with seven top 10 finishes to his name, including a career-high sixth place finish in his fourth career race, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, back in late April.

With 21 points, the 2016 GP3 Series and 2017 Formula 2 champion is the highest scoring Sauber driver in a single since Felipe Nasr scored 27 points as a result of his six top 10 finishes in the 2015 season. Leclerc is slated to become the highest finishing Sauber driver in the driver standings since Nasr finished in 13th place in the 2015 standings.

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Leclerc’s total of seven top 10 finishes so far this season is the highest top 10 finish total among all Sauber drivers since Nico Hulkenberg recorded 10 top 10 finishes for the team in the 2013 season, which resulted in him scoring 51 points and finishing the season in 10th place in the driver standings.

The success that the Ferrari junior driver has experienced so far this season has led him to sign a contract to replace 2007 Formula 1 champion Kimi Raikkonen at Scuderia Ferrari beginning next season. The 38-year-old Finn is set to return to Formula 1 for his 17th season next season, but he is set to replace Leclerc at Sauber.

This means that Leclerc is set to go from driving for one of the slowest teams in Formula 1 to arguably the fastest team in Formula 1. Will he be able to secure his first career victory in the 2019 season?

There is no debate about the fact that Raikkonen has been Ferrari’s number two driver since he returned to the team in the 2014 season (he also drove for the team from the 2007 season through the 2009 season). He has not won a race since he returned to the team, while Sebastian Vettel, who replaced Fernando Alonso at the team ahead of the 2015 season, has won 13 races over the course of the last three-plus seasons.

Ferrari undoubtedly like having the team-based dynamic within the organization. So while it would be easy to say that they will continue focusing on this dynamic in the 2019 season and beyond even after signing Leclerc to replace Raikkonen, why would they try to fix something that they have been content with for many years just by signing another driver?

Even with Raikkonen being 38 years old, they likely wouldn’t. Clearly they have different plans for Leclerc, or they wouldn’t have signed him yet. Simply put, Leclerc will most likely compete for victories early and often next season. Regarding whether or not he will compete to win the championship, he certainly could, but making the jump to Ferrari will still require him to adapt. I wouldn’t count him out, but he will certainly not be the favorite.

Will Charles Leclerc win his first career Formula 1 race in the 2019 season? If so, in which race will he earn this victory? How many victories will he earn next year, and in which races will he earn them?