Formula 1: What Lewis Hamilton needs to do in Japan to clinch in the U.S.
By Asher Fair
Lewis Hamilton can set himself up to clinch the 2018 Formula 1 championship in the United States Grand Prix with a strong performance in the Japanese Grand Prix.
Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton enters the 17th race on the 21-race 2018 Formula 1 schedule, the Japanese Grand Prix, with a 50-point lead in the driver standings over Scuderia Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel (306 to 256).
With five races remaining on the 2018 schedule and a maximum of 25 points on the table for each driver in each race, there is no way by which the 33-year-old Briton can clinch the championship over the 31-year-old German in the Japanese Grand Prix, as he can only possibly end up a maximum of 75 points ahead of him. With four races left on the schedule, a maximum of 100 points will be on the table for each driver.
However, with a strong performance in the 53-lap Japanese Grand Prix around the 18-turn, 3.609-mile (5.807-kilometer) Suzuka Circuit road course in Suzuka, Mie Prefecture, Japan, Hamilton can put himself in position to beat Vettel to his fifth career Formula 1 championship in the United States Grand Prix.
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After the United States Grand Prix, just three races will remain on the 2018 schedule, meaning that there will be a maximum of 75 points on the table for each driver.
With Hamilton having the ability to score 25 points in the United States Grand Prix with a victory and therefore make up 25 points over Vettel if Vettel fails to finish the race in the top 10, he must not be outscored by Vettel in the Japanese Grand Prix if he wants to have a chance to clinch the championship in the United States Grand Prix.
If Hamilton is outscored by Vettel in the Japanese Grand Prix, he would not be able to leave the United States Grand Prix with more than 74 more points that Vettel has, meaning that he would not be able to clinch his fifth career championship in that race.
If Vettel does not outscore Hamilton in the Japanese Grand Prix, this means that he cannot possibly have won it, which would mean that his win total would stay at five. Hamilton’s win total is currently at eight.
Assuming Vettel does not outscore Hamilton in this race, the worst that can happen for Hamilton is both drivers fail to score points. It isn’t likely, but it’s possible. If this happens, Hamilton would enter the United States Grand Prix with a 50-point lead over Vettel in the driver standings.
If this happens and Hamilton wins the United States Grand Prix while Vettel fails to score points, he would take a 75-point lead over Vettel in the driver standings with three races remaining. He would also have nine victories while Vettel would have just five, meaning that Vettel would have no way to win a tiebreaker with him, thus clinching him his fifth career championship.
If Hamilton ends up outscoring Vettel in the Japanese Grand Prix, he will naturally put himself in a better position to clinch the championship in the United States Grand Prix, especially if he wins considering the fact that a win in the Japanese Grand Prix would be his ninth victory of the season.
Considering Vettel has earned five victories so far this season, he would only be able to reach nine victories if Hamilton wins the Japanese Grand Prix, meaning that the two drivers would tie for wins.
However, if Hamilton wins the Japanese Grand Prix and Vettel does not finish in second place, Vettel would no longer be able to win a tiebreaker over Hamilton even if he wins the final four races of the season. Hamilton has earned three second place finishes so far this season while Vettel has earned only two.
How will the Japanese Grand Prix turn out? Will Lewis Hamilton enter the United States Grand Prix with a chance to clinch the 2018 Formula 1 championship, which would be the fifth championship of his career? Tune in to ESPN2 at 1:10 a.m. ET tomorrow morning to find out, as that is when the Japanese Grand Prix is set to be broadcast live from Suzuka Circuit.