Four-time Formula 1 champion Sebastian Vettel is set to face mathematical elimination from championship contention in the United States Grand Prix.
Scuderia Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel opened up the 2018 Formula 1 season with two consecutive victories in the Australian Grand Prix and the Bahrain Grand Prix. However, in the 15 races that have been contested since then, he has earned just three more victories.
Now the four-time Formula 1 champion is set to face mathematical elimination from championship contention heading into the 18th race of the 21-race season, the United States Grand Prix.
The 31-year-old German currently sits in second place in the driver standings with 264 points. He trails fellow four-time champion Lewis Hamilton, who has 331 points, by 67 points.
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With four races remaining on the 2018 schedule, a maximum of 100 points are still on the table for each driver. This is the case because of the fact that race victories are worth 25 points.
Following the 56-lap race around the 20-turn, 3.427-mile (5.513-kilometer) Circuit of the Americas road course in Austin, Texas, just three races will remain on the schedule. As a result, a maximum of 75 points will still be on the table for each driver.
However, as opposed to remaining within 75 points of Hamilton to remain mathematically eligible to win this season’s driver championship following the United States Grand Prix, Vettel must remain within 74 points of him.
This is the case because of the fact that Vettel cannot possibly win a tiebreaker over Hamilton this season. Vettel has earned five victories so far in 2018 while Hamilton has earned nine. But while Vettel can tie Hamilton’s win total by winning each of the final four races of the season, doing so would cause the tiebreaker to be number of second place finishes.
Hamilton has secured three second place finishes so far this season while Vettel has secured just two. If Vettel wins all four races left on the 2018 schedule, which is the only way for him to tie Hamilton’s win total, then he would not be able to add to his second place finish total.
This means that in order to remain mathematically eligible to win the 2018 Formula 1 driver championship following the United States Grand Prix, Vettel must avoid being outscored by Hamilton by more than seven points in this race.
Here are the scenarios by which Vettel can do so.
- If Hamilton wins, Vettel must finish in second place.
- If Hamilton finishes in second place, Vettel must finish in the top four.
- If Hamilton finishes in third place, Vettel must finish in the top six.
- If Hamilton finishes in fourth place, Vettel must finish in the top seven.
- If Hamilton finishes in fifth place, Vettel must finish in the top eight.
- If Hamilton finished in sixth place, Vettel must finish in the top 10.
- If Hamilton finishes in seventh place or lower, Vettel can finish anywhere.
Will Sebastian Vettel exit the United States Grand Prix and head into the Mexican Grand Prix still mathematically eligible to win the 2018 Formula 1 driver championship? Be sure to tune in to ABC at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 21 for the live broadcast of the race to find out.