Formula 1: How Mercedes can clinch the 2018 championship in Mexico

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport have a chance to clinch their fifth consecutive Formula 1 constructor championship in the Mexican Grand Prix.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport have a chance to mathematically eliminate Scuderia Ferrari from 2018 Formula 1 constructor championship contention and clinch their fifth consecutive constructor title in this Sunday’s Mexican Grand Prix.

Following the 18th race of the 21-race 2018 Formula 1 season, the United States Grand Prix, Mercedes have a 66-point lead (563 to 497) in the constructor standings over Ferrari.

With three races remaining on the 2018 schedule, including the Mexican Grand Prix, the Brazilian Grand Prix and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, there are a maximum of 129 points on the table for each team, as a maximum of 43 points are on the table for each team in each race.

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This means that with two races remaining, there will be a maximum of 86 points on the table for each team. As a result, Mercedes will clinch the 2018 constructor championship if they outscore Ferrari by at least 20 points in the 71-lap race around the 17-turn, 2.674-mile (4.304-kilometer) Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City, Mexico.

This would give Mercedes an 86-point lead over Ferrari heading into the penultimate race of the season, the Brazilian Grand Prix. The reason that they would clinch the championship with an 86-point lead as opposed to an 87-point lead is fact that they have clinched the tiebreaker over Ferrari.

Mercedes have earned nine victories so far this season while Ferrari have earned six. However, even if Ferrari tie the win total of Mercedes by winning all three of the races that are left on the schedule, they would lose the second place finish tiebreaker, which is what the tiebreaker would become.

This is the case because of the fact that Mercedes have earned 10 second place finishes so far this season while Ferrari have only earned five. As a result, Ferrari can only earn a maximum of eight second place finishes in 2018.

There are literally hundreds of possible scenarios that would result in Mercedes outscoring Ferrari by at least 20 points in the Mexican Grand Prix. While we will not go into all of them, we will give the two that represent the high point of the range and the low point of the range that all of these scenarios lie within.

We’ll start off with the high point.

At most, Mercedes can score 43 points in the Mexican Grand Prix. They can do so by winning the race (25 points) and finishing in second place (18 points). If this happens, they would win the championship if Ferrari do not score more than 23 points*.

Ferrari can score 23 points* or lower in the race by…

Finishing in third place (15 points) or lower and sixth place (eight points) or lower

* = without winning or finishing in second place since Mercedes would have already done so

Here is the low point.

At the very least, Mercedes must score at least 20 points in the Mexican Grand Prix to have a chance to clinch the 2018 Formula 1 constructor championship in it. If they do so, Ferrari would need to fail to score, which would mean that both of their drivers would need to finish in 11th place or lower, for Mercedes to clinch the title.

Mercedes can score at least 20 points in the race by…

Finishing in second place (18 points) or higher and ninth place (two points) or higher
Finishing in third place (15 points) or higher and seventh place (six points)* or higher
Finishing in fourth place (12 points) or higher and sixth place (eight points) or higher

* = there is no finish worth exactly five points

Will Mercedes clinch the 2018 Formula 1 championship in the Mexican Grand Prix? Be sure to tune in to ABC at 3:10 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 28 for the live broadcast of the race from Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez to find out.