NASCAR Cup Series: Who will advance to the Championship 4? (track averages)

If track averages determine the results of the three 2018 NASCAR Cup Series round of 8 playoff races, who will advance to the Championship 4?

The round of 8, which is the third round of the four-round, 10-race 2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, is scheduled to get underway this Sunday, October 28 with the First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway, as the round of 12 came to an end following the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway this past Sunday.

The point totals of each of the eight drivers who advanced from the second round of the playoffs, the round of 12, to the round of 8 were reset to 4,000. At that point, the playoff points totals that they have earned throughout the first 32 races of the 36-race season were added to their respective point totals.

As a result, here is the current playoff picture heading into the 500-lap race around the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia. The totals listed in the “behind” column show where each driver currently sits in relation to the Championship 4 cut line.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
1st – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4055 (+40)
2nd – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 4054 (+39)
3rd – Martin Truex Jr., #78, Furniture Row Racing, Toyota: 4038 (+23)
4th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 4018 (+3)
5th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 4015 (-3)
5th – Kurt Busch, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 4015 (-3)
5th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 4015 (-3)
8th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 4006 (-12)

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After Sunday’s First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway, two races will remain on the round of 8 schedule. These races are set to take place at Texas Motor Speedway and ISM Raceway (Phoenix).

With just four positions open for these eight drivers to qualify for the Championship 4, which four drivers will advance to the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a chance to win the 2018 Cup Series championship?

If the results of the three round of 8 races are based on each driver’s track average at each of the three tracks where these races are set to be held, here is how the playoff picture would look at the end of the round of 12.

NOTE: Included in this chart are the current point totals of each driver as well as the point totals the would earn in the round of 8 races at Martinsville Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and ISM Raceway if the rank of their track average at each of these three tracks compared to the track averages of each of the other seven round of 8 drivers at each of these tracks determines the finishing order of each stage in each race and in each race itself. These point totals are added to show what each driver’s point total would be once the round of 8 concludes if this ends up being the case.

Example: Kyle Busch’s average finish at Martinsville Speedway is 12.65, which is the best among the eight round of 8 drivers. He is given 60 points (40 for the win,10 for the stage one win and 10 for the stage two win). Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer’s average finish at the track is 13.48, which is the second best among the eight round of 8 drivers. He is given 53 points (35 for the second place finish, nine for the second place stage one finish and nine for the second place stage two finish). This procedure continues for all eight drivers from the best to the worst track average at each track, going from 60 total points for first place through 37 total points for eighth.

Rank – Driver: Points – (Martinsville – Texas – Phoenix): Points (Behind)
1st – Chase Elliott: 4018 – (44 – 60 – 60): 4182 (+32) – 2 WINS
2nd – Kyle Busch: 4055 – (60 – 50 – 50): 4215 (+65) – 1 WIN
3rd – Kevin Harvick: 4054 – (47 – 53 – 53): 4207 (+57)
4th – Martin Truex Jr.: 4038 – (41 – 47 – 38): 4164 (+14)
5th – Joey Logano: 4015 – (50 – 41 – 44): 4150 (-14)
6th – Kurt Busch: 4015 – (38 – 44 – 47): 4144 (-20)
7th – Clint Bowyer: 4015 – (53 – 38 – 35): 4141 (-23)
8th – Aric Almirola: 4006 – (35 – 35 – 41): 4117 (-47)

If track averages determine the results of the three round of 8 races, the four drivers who would advance to the Championship 4 are Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. Meanwhile, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola would be eliminated from championship contention.

Which four drivers do you believe will advance from the round of 8 to the Championship 4 to have a chance to compete for the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series championship in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday, November 18? Do you believe that each driver’s track averages will have any effect on where they finish in any of the round of 8 races?