NASCAR Cup Series: Martin Truex Jr.’s game plan for Phoenix is quite simple

Martin Truex Jr. has a clear path to get back to the Championship 4 for the second consecutive NASCAR Cup Series season. Here is what he needs to do.

Furniture Row Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion, is set to enter the third and final race of this season’s round of 8, the Can-Am 500, at ISM Raceway as the fourth and final driver ahead of the Championship 4 cut line.

The driver of the #78 Toyota is currently on the bubble, and he sits 25 points ahead of Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kurt Busch, who sits in fifth place in the playoff picture as the first of four drivers below the Championship 4 cut line.

But while the 38-year-old Mayetta, New Jersey native is vulnerable to losing his provisional Championship 4 berth as the driver on the bubble since a win by any of the four drivers, including Busch, Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott and Stewart-Haas Racing teammates Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer, who are currently below the Championship 4 cut line would move the Championship 4 cut line up by one position to put Truex Jr. on the outside looking in, his gameplan for the 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) ISM Raceway oval in Avondale, Arizona is quite simple.

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Obviously, each driver’s number one goal is to win, and that is certainly Truex Jr.’s primary target for this weekend’s race. So his gameplan is more than simple in that regard.

However, assuming he doesn’t win, his gameplan is still quite simple.

Of the four drivers who are currently below the Championship 4 cut line, only Busch and Elliott have a chance to advance to the Championship based on their point totals, meaning that only they have a chance to pass Truex Jr.’s point total. Neither Almirola not Bowyer have any way of doing so, as they are both in must-win situations heading into the round of 8 finale when it comes to advancing to the Championship 4.

That said, Busch and Elliott have a lot of work to do if they plan to advance to the Championship 4 based on their respective point totals. As referenced above, Busch trials Truex Jr. by 25 points. Elliott trails Truex Jr. by 39 points. The fact is, the best chance they have to advance to the Championship 4 is by winning the Can-Am 500. They shouldn’t even be thinking about points at this point.

NOTE: All scenarios discussed in this article from this point forward assume that Kurt Busch and Chase Elliott do not get into the Championship 4 based on their point totals.

A win by Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer in the Can-Am 500 would move the Championship 4 cut line to above Truex Jr. However, he can protect against the threat of being left on the outside looking in in terms of the Championship 4 even if this happens. He can do so by passing the point total of Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch.

Truex Jr. trails Busch by just three points, and he currently has the tiebreaker over Busch since his better finish in the first two round of 8 races so far is his second place finish in the race at Martinsville Speedway while Busch’s better finish is his fourth place finish in the same race.

Truex Jr.’s other finish in the round of 8 is his ninth place finish in the race a Texas Motor Speedway. Busch finished this race in 17th, meaning that Truex Jr. will clinch the tiebreaker over Busch assuming that Busch does not finish in second place in the Can-Am 500.

This means that even if Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer wins the race, Truex Jr. would clinch a berth in the Championship 4 if he outscores Busch by at least three points in the Can-Am 500 and Busch does not finish it in second place.

Even if Kyle Busch finishes the race in second place, which would make the tiebreaker become each driver’s second best finish in the round of 8,  and either Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer wins the race, Truex Jr. would clinch a berth in the Championship 4 by finishing in fourth or higher and outscoring Kyle Busch by at least three points.

A fourth place finish by Truex Jr. would cause the tiebreaker to become each driver’s third best finish in the round of 8, and Truex Jr. would win this tiebreaker.

If Truex Jr. finishes the race in fifth place or lower, he would need to outscore Kyle Busch by at least four points to clinch a berth in the Championship 4 assuming either Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer wins it since Busch would clinch the tiebreaker over Truex Jr. by way of a better second best finish in the round of 8.

What it all comes down to is this. If Martin Truex Jr. scores at least three points (four points to be safe) more than Kyle Busch does in the Can-Am 500, he would become a virtual lock to advance to the Championship 4 for the second consecutive season.

Will Martin Truex Jr. advance to the round of 8 to the Championship 4 for the second consecutive season to give himself a chance to win his second consecutive NASCAR Cup Series championship in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway? Tune in to NBC’s live broadcast of the Can-Am 500 from ISM Raceway at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 11 to find out.