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Formula 1: How Mercedes can clinch the 2018 championship in Brazil

By Asher Fair

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - OCTOBER 27: Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain driving the (44) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team Mercedes WO9 on track during qualifying for the Formula One Grand Prix of Mexico at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez on October 27, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Dan Istitene/Getty Images)
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - OCTOBER 27: Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain driving the (44) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team Mercedes WO9 on track during qualifying for the Formula One Grand Prix of Mexico at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez on October 27, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Dan Istitene/Getty Images) /
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Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport can clinch the 2018 Formula 1 constructor championship in the Brazilian Grand Prix. Here is who.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport have won each of the last four Formula 1 constructor championship dating back to the 2014 season, which was the first season of the V6 turbo hybrid era.

The Brackley-based team entered the 19th race of the 21-race 2018 Formula 1 season, the Mexican Grand Prix, with a chance to clinch their fifth consecutive constructor championship, but they were unable to pull it off.

However, Mercedes have another chance to clinch this year’s constructor championship in the penultimate race of the season, the Brazilian Grand Prix.

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The Silver Arrows are set to enter the 71-lap race around the 15-turn, 2.677-mile (4.309-kilometer) Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Sao Paulo, Brazil with a 55-point lead (585 to 530) in the constructor standings over Scuderia Ferrari in second place.

A maximum of 43 points are on the table for each team in each race since race victories are worth 25 points and second place finishes are worth 18 points. This means that upon the conclusion of the Brazilian Grand Prix, a maximum of 43 points will remain on the table for each team throughout the remainder of the season, as only the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will remain on the schedule following this race.

Mercedes have already clinched the tiebreaker over Ferrari, as their win total is nine so far this season while Ferrari’s is six, meaning that there is no way by which Ferrari can match, much less pass, their win total with just two races remaining on the schedule.

This means that Mercedes will clinch this year’s constructor championship over Ferrari if they end up at least 43 points ahead of them in the constructor standings following the Brazilian Grand Prix. While they would naturally clinch the title if they end up 44 points ahead of Ferrari following this race as well, they only need to be 43 points ahead of them to do so because they have clinched the tiebreaker over the Italian team.

As a result, Mercedes must avoid being outscored by Ferrari by more than 12 points in the Brazilian Grand Prix. There are literally thousands of possible scenarios that would result in Ferrari failing to outscore Mercedes by more than 12 points, so we will not discuss all of them. However, we will provide the two that represent the high point of the range and the low point of the range that all of these scenarios lie within.

At most, Ferrari can score 43 points in the Brazilian Grand Prix. They can do so by winning the race (25 points) and finishing in second place (18 points). If this happens, Mercedes would be unable to win the championship since their maximum point total would be 27 (15 points for a third place finish and 12 points for a fourth place finish).

With this in mind, here is the high point.

Ferrari can score 40 points in the Brazilian Grand Prix by winning (25 points) and finished in third place (15 points). If this happens, Mercedes would win the championship by scoring at least 28 points. Here is how they can do so.

  • Finishing in second place (18 points) and fifth place (10 points) or higher

Here is the low point.

If Mercedes fail to score points, they will clinch the championship if Ferrari score 12 points or less. Here is how Ferrari can score 12 points or less.

  • Finishing in fourth place (12 points) or lower and 11th place (zero points) or lower
  • Finishing in fifth place (10 points) or lower and finishing in ninth place (two points) or lower
  • Finishing in sixth place (eight points) or lower and finishing in eighth place (four points) or lower

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The Brazilian Grand Prix is scheduled to take place on Sunday, November 11 at 12:10 p.m. ET, at which time it is set to be broadcast live from Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace on ABC. Be sure not to miss it, as it is the penultimate race of the 2018 Formula 1 season and could very well result in Mercedes clinching their fifth consecutive constructor championship.

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