NASCAR: Pearce Dietrich talks Championship 4, what to expect in 2019

Beyond the Flag had another opportunity to interview DraftKings NASCAR analyst Pearce Dietrich to discuss the 2018 season finale and what to expect in 2019.

Beyond the Flag had another opportunity to interview DraftKings NASCAR analyst Pearce Dietrich earlier this week. We interviewed Dietrich, who has been discussing daily fantasy strategies behind DraftKings NASCAR for several years, twice earlier this season, once before the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway to open up the season in February and once before the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway in April.

Here is a list of our questions and Pearce’s answers ahead of the 2018 season finale, the Ford EcoBoost 400, at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida. Thank you to Pearce for doing another interview with us.

Beyond the Flag: Do you expect the champion to win the race again like he has in each of
the first four years of the Championship 4?

Pearce: Yes. Larson should win, but he won’t. That’s just the way the season has gone for him. Give me Kyle Busch.

Beyond the Flag: Which non-playoff drivers could you see getting to the playoffs next year?

Pearce: William Byron. The top 16 drivers make the playoffs, and there are only 20 competitive cars. We’re not talking about getting into Harvard. Chad Knaus could get Morgan Shepherd into the playoffs.

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Beyond the Flag: Which of this year’s round of 8 drivers, Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer, has the best chance of getting to the
Championship 4 next year?

Pearce: None of them. Each of their wins were fluke-y. Kurt only led 24 laps at Bristol. All three of Elliott’s wins were the result of bad pit stops by Kyle Busch and Harvick. Almirola won a plate race, that’s fluke-y enough, but NASCAR forced an extra caution lap when they knew the field was short on fuel and then refused to throw a
caution. Bowyer’s win at Martinsville was legit, but he doesn’t have the
intermediate track chops.

Beyond the Flag: Will the Big Three all get back to the Championship 4 for the third straight
year next year?

Pearce: Yes. They have the resources. It’s like asking will Bezos and Gates be the richest men in the world next year.

Beyond the Flag: Who are your way-too-early picks to reach next year’s Championship 4?

Pearce: The big three are already set in stone. The fourth driver is irrelevant, but I’ll go with Keselowski. Next year the intermediate tracks will be like old Xfinity races with the cars running flat out. The guys that used to run double-time in the COT should be the best at driving the new slugs. Kyle Busch should be great at driving the slow cars that are stuck to the ground, too.

Beyond the Flag: Who do you believe will be next year’s Sunoco Rookie of the Year?

Pearce: Ryan Preece is the only rookie that I am aware of. So he’ll win the award with an average finish of 25th and continue the tradition of giving out a stupid award. If they want to give out a real award, then give out an underclassman of the year award. Best driver with less than three years or maybe five years of experience. That’s an award and is fun to debate. You’re welcome NASCAR.

Beyond the Flag: Can we expect Chevrolet to be more competitive and win more races next year after a disappointing season?

Pearce: No. The Chevys decline predated the new body. When the SHR engine money left Hendrick and went to Roush Yates, it was game over. Maybe, the latest spacer helps, but I doubt it. The Chevy teams and drivers are not very strong. Larson in a Ford or Toyota, and he’s on the cover of Sports Illustrated, if that still exists. The rest are weak.

Beyond the Flag: Do you expect Ford teams to struggle with the new Mustang to the extent
that Chevrolet teams struggled with the new Camaro?

Pearce: No. The Chevy body woes were at the aero dependent intermediate tracks. With the spacer and speed drops, that shouldn’t matter. The team that squeezes extra speed out of the limited engine should be in the best shape. Yates and TRD are in the best position to tackle the new package changes.

Beyond the Flag: Which of the three notable winless drivers in this season, Kyle Larson,
Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin, has the best chance to bounce back in
2019?

Pearce: Larson. The others are done. Just wait until Denny Hamlin grows a beard. Father Time is undefeated. Gordon, Stewart, Kenseth, and Jr. all followed a similar path.

Beyond the Flag: How, if at all, do you expect the new rules package to impact not only the
racing itself but the drivers who are regularly able to compete for
victories?

Pearce: NASCAR changes the rules package every year and multiple times during the year. Nothing will change. Maybe we’ll see more one groove racing. These cars are going to run flat out in the corners, so the fastest way around will be the shortest way around on the bottom. The top line won’t stand a chance. I’m not a physicist, so I could be wrong, but the fact is that we ask this question every year. Which means that NASCAR makes changes every year. Which also means that the changes never work. If NASCAR will not abandon certain terrible tracks, yeah I’m talking about you Texas, then they need specialized packages for specific races. It’s expensive, but since when does NASCAR care about spending? The only cost cutting measure they have implemented was uniform pit guns. NASCAR makes the federal government look austere. That’s like switching from Miller Light to Keystone. That’s not going to pay for the kid’s college.

Beyond the Flag: Do you see Joey Logano, champion or not, making it out of this weekend
unscathed?

Pearce: Logano needs luck and restart madness at end to win, and you know what they say – Morals will be tested. What was the deal with that last week? Jr. and Letarte kept saying “morals will be tested” and “restart of his life” like it was a mantra, or a copyrighted slogan. It was very WWE, but that’s what Logano needs. Short of Todd Gordon hitting Adam Stevens with a steel chair, he doesn’t stand a chance. To the wreck stuff, Truex won’t dump him. It’s not who he is, and this is not a track for payback.

Beyond the Flag: Finally, who do you think will walk away from this weekend as the 2018
champion?

Pearce: Kyle Busch.

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The 2018 NASCAR Cup Series champion is set to be crowned on Sunday, November 18 following the Ford EcoBoost 400. Be sure to tune in to the live broadcast of this race from Homestead-Miami Speedway beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC to see who this champion will be.

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