IndyCar: When will a small-team driver win a championship?

Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske and Andretti Autosport drivers have combined to win the last 16 IndyCar championships. When will a small-team driver win one?

Panther Racing’s Sam Hornish Jr. won his second career IndyCar championship by winning the 2002 season finale at Texas Motor Speedway. Throughout the 15-race 2002 season, the then 23-year-old Defiance, Ohio native earned five victories and additional five podium finishes.

But since then, including only the Indy Racing League and IndyCar seasons and not the Champ Car seasons, only three teams have had drivers win IndyCar championships. These three teams are Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske and Andretti Autosport.

There is no doubt that there is a ton of parity in IndyCar, and there is no doubt that the series is a lot more competitive than Formula 1 as a whole. Several drivers who don’t drive for Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport win races each season, and many of them are competitive on a regular basis.

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But even in Formula 1, three teams combining to field the champions for 16 consecutive seasons is practically unheard of. This has happened just once in the sport’s history. It happened from the 1984 season through the 1999 season when all of the champions drove for either McLaren, Williams or Benetton. This 16-year stint came to an end when Michael Schumacher won the 2000 championship driving for Ferrari.

There are currently six teams that have had their drivers win championships over the last 16 Formula 1 seasons. Those teams are Ferrari, Renault, McLaren, Brawn, Red Bull Racing and Mercedes.

The drivers of Formula 1’s current “Big Three” of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing have combined to win each of the last nine championships, 12 of the last 16 championships and 15 of the last 19 championships.

Meanwhile, the drivers of Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske and Andretti Autosport have combined to win each of the last 16 IndyCar championships. Chip Ganassi Racing’s drivers have combined to win eight of these championships while Team Penske’s drivers have combined to win four of them and Andretti Autosport’s drivers have combined to win the other four of them.

When will a non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver win an IndyCar championship?

While there are several solid drivers who drive for some of the sport’s smaller teams, most notably Dale Coyne Racing’s Sebastien Bourdais, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing’s Graham Rahal and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports’ James Hinchcliffe, this likely won’t happen anytime soon.

Had Schmidt Peterson Motorsports’ Robert Wickens not gotten injured in the race at Pocono Raceway in the 2018 season, his rookie season, my answer might be different given the way he came to IndyCar and dominated the season opener before going on to be a contender at pretty much every type of track. He proved right away that he could beat even the sport’s fastest and most proven drivers, and he did so by having the most sensational rookie season by an IndyCar driver in a long, long time.

Bourdais’s best finish in the IndyCar championship standings, not including the seasons during which he competed in Champ Car and won four championships, is his seventh place finish in the 2018 season. This seventh place finish made him the highest finishing non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver of the year.

Rahal was the highest finishing non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver in the championship standings in the 2015 and 2017 seasons when he finished in fourth, and sixth place, respectively. He entered the season finales of both of these seasons mathematically eligible to win the championship.

Rahal also finished in fifth place in the championship standings in the 2016 season, but he finished behind Ed Carpenter Racing’s Josef Newgarden, who now drives for Team Penske, in fourth.

Hinchcliffe has never been the highest finishing non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver in the championship standings, but if he can start to close out seasons like he has started them, he may have a shot to change that in the near future. He almost changed it this past season despite the fact that he failed to qualify for the double points-paying Indianapolis 500. That said, a championship may still be a bit out of reach for him.

Only twice since the 2002 season has a non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver finished in the top three in the championship standings. Buddy Rice finished in third place in the standings in the 2004 season driving for Rahal Letterman Racing while Simon Pagenaud, who now drives for Team Penske, finished in third in the standings in the 2013 season driving for Schmidt Peterson Hamilton HP Motorsports.

Pagenaud was also the highest finishing non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver in the championship standings in the 2012 and 2014 seasons. He finished in fifth place in the standings in both seasons.

With all of this in mind, the odds of non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver winning an IndyCar championship are not high whatsoever, and they likely won’t be for quite a while. Pretty much everything would have to go right for one particular small-team driver while a lot would have to go wrong for the Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske and Andretti Autosport drivers for this to change.

Will the 2019 IndyCar season be the season that results in a non-Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske or Andretti Autosport driver being crowned champion? If not, in which season will this occur for the first time since Sam Hornish Jr. won the 2002 championship driving for Panther Racing?