NASCAR: Pearce Dietrich talks DraftKings and more ahead of 2019 season

Beyond the Flag recently had the opportunity to interview DraftKings NASCAR analyst Pearce Dietrich to discuss the 2019 season ahead.

Like we did three times throughout the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season, we had the opportunity to interview DraftKings NASCAR analyst Pearce Dietrich ahead of the 2019 season.

Dietrich discussed a variety of topics, including the new aero package, the season-opening 61st annual Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, fantasy NASCAR through DraftKings and the 2019 season in general.

Here is what Dietrich had to say in this Q&A.

Beyond the Flag: Do you expect there to be much passing at the tracks where the new aero package is set to be enforced?

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Pearce Dietrich: There will be a lot of passing from second to the back early in a run. On a long run, if the track spreads out, the leaders will eventually approach lappers, but unlike before, there will not be much of discrepancy in speed between lappers and leaders.

The leaders will not cruise by the back of the pack, so this should put the leaders in a dirty air situation that allows them to be passed. Green flag pit cycling should jumble the pack up. When the leader pits, he’ll lose the lead and reenter the track in traffic and become just as vulnerable as the rest of the field.

BTF: How will the ex-restrictor plate races (two at Talladega Superspeedway and the July race at Daytona International Speedway) compare to what we saw when they were restrictor plate races in the past?

Dietrich: I am trying to stop. I have a nasty habit of pretending that I am an aerodynamics engineer. I don’t know what will happen. Maybe we will see 1990s style Daytona races. It’s more likely that the opposite of what NASCAR wants will happen. That’s usually the way their changes go, so no passing then, I guess.

BTF: Will the new aero package serve as somewhat of an equalizer among some of the bigger teams and the mid-pack or ever smaller teams? If so, could you see any major upsets (relatively speaking) happening this year?

Dietrich: This is Bernie Sanders’ NASCAR. I spoke about this on my podcast. Imagine MLB allowed everyone to use metal baseball bats. The power hitters no longer have a skillful edge. It’s unfair to the skilled drivers who have made a living limiting off-throttle time in the corners, and it’s rough on the purists, but to the casual fan, it’s pretty entertaining. MLB was dead in the mid-1990s until they sold their soul to the long ball. Many purists hated the steroid era, but it was fun to watch.

BTF: Will the new aero package serve as an equalizer among the manufacturers after Chevrolet’s worst season in several decades?

Dietrich: Yates and TRD are simply producing better engines. When SHR stopped purchasing Hendrick engines, Chevy declined. However, with the level playing field, they’ll have a shot. Especially if they’re willing to wreck the leader, and Jimmie Johnson has already shown that he is desperate enough for a win that he’ll dump the leader in an exhibition race.

BTF: With the answers to questions 1 through 4 in mind, in what way or ways do you think the new aero package and its effects will impact fantasy NASCAR?

Dietrich: Fast lap points will not be predictable. Laps led points are still on the table, but it’s hard to imagine that one car will lead all of the laps. Place differential could be huge with anyone capable of a top 10 and anyone capable of finishing outside of the top 20. It’s a new game.

BTF: There is never really a good answer to this question considering the circumstances, but how do you strategize when picking drivers for the Daytona 500?

Dietrich: Take drivers who start in the back and that stay in the back until half of the field has retired to the garage. If you look at a driver’s average running position at Daytona, then you’ll get an idea of their approach (this only work for races where they do not wreck). The main lap leader has been crucial in the past, but it may not matter anymore in this irreverent era.

Whether or not you believe Austin Dillon dumped Aric Almirola last year, the fact is that the leader did not survive. The same thing happened last week. The only way the leader races to the finish is if he’s leading his teammates.

If you build a couple lineups, then build a lineup with teammates and some drivers starting in the back that can earn place differential points after all of the wrecks. In the other lineup, play dirt ball drivers and drivers starting in the back. Everyone knows who the dirt balls are.

BTF: Which drivers do you expect to perform at the highest level when you compare their expected performance to where they are currently priced when it comes to fantasy?

Dietrich: I don’t expect anything when it comes to drivers. At a plate race, I do not predict driver outcomes; I predict race outcomes. I expect half of the field to finish down a lap. I expect that drivers who are starting in the back who do not wreck will default to place differential points. Brad Keselowski should be a contender, but if you expected that last year, then you were wrong every time. He wrecked in every plate race. Chase Elliott has been horrible in Cup plate races, but at some point his luck will turn and he’ll win one of these things.

BTF: How can consumers get in on the action via DraftKings?

Dietrich: Go to DraftKings.com and sign up or download the app and sign up. You can play for free, or you can deposit $10 and see if you can win the $100,000 prize for building the best Daytona 500 lineup.

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Thank you to Pearce Dietrich for being willing to do this interview. The 2019 NASCAR Cup Series is scheduled to get underway this Sunday, February 17 with the 61st annual Daytona 500. Be sure to tune in to the live broadcast of this race from Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET on Fox.

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