NASCAR: When will Kyle Busch break the all-time record with 201st victory?

Kyle Busch has earned 200 career NASCAR victories across the Cup Series, Xfinity Series and Truck Series. When will he break the all-time record by earning his 201st?

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch tied Richard Petty’s all-time NASCAR wins record by winning this past Sunday’s Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway.

With his victory in this 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.0-mile (3.219-kilometer) oval in Fontana, California, the 33-year-old Las Vegas, Nevada native has now earned a total of 200 victories in his NASCAR career across the Cup Series, the Xfinity Series and the Truck Series.

Busch’s career Cup Series win total of 53 ranks 11th on the all-time wins list while his career Xfinity Series win total of 94 and his career Truck Series win total of 53 are both all-time records.

Petty, meanwhile, never competed in the Xfinity Series or the Cup Series. He earned all 200 of his NASCAR victories in the Cup Series. His career Cup Series win total is more than half of every other driver’s Cup Series win total in the sport’s history aside of David Pearson, who earned 105 victories throughout his Cup Series career.

But while the debate about whether or not Busch’s victories match up with Petty’s will likely rage on for quite some time, the indisputable fact is that both drivers are now tied atop the all-time NASCAR wins list 200 victories.

More from NASCAR

• NASCAR Cup Series: New team set to compete in 2024
• NASCAR: Will Kevin Harvick’s major record ever be broken?
• NASCAR: Surprising name continuously linked to new seat
• NASCAR driver at risk of missing the Daytona 500?
• NASCAR set for rare appearance last seen 13 years ago

After tying the record, the one question remains is this: when will Busch earn the 201st victory of his NASCAR career to officially break Petty’s all-time record?

Busch has competed in 10 races so far this season, including five Cup Series races, three Xfinity Series races and two Truck Series races, and he has won six of them. He has earned two victories in each of these three series after starting the season with 194 career NASCAR victories, including 51 career Cup Series victories, 92 career Xfinity Series victories and 51 career Truck Series victories.

Busch is set to compete in 38 races across the Cup Series, Xfinity Series and Truck Series before the season ends, so it would be an absolute shock if he did not earn his 201st career NASCAR victory this year.

In addition to being set to compete in the remaining 31 races on the Cup Series schedule from now through mid-November, Busch is set to compete in four more Xfinity Series races as well as three more the Truck Series races before the 2019 season reaches its conclusion.

Busch is set to compete in the four Xfinity Series races at Texas Motor Speedway, Watkins Glen International, Bristol Motor Speedway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Saturday, March 30, Saturday, August 3, Friday, August 16 and Saturday, September 7, respectively. He is set compete in the three Truck Series races at Martinsville Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway on Saturday, March 23, Friday, March 29 and on Friday, May 17, respectively.

So the quite easy (and quite broad) answer to this question is that he will earn his 201st career NASCAR victory at some point in the remainder of the 2019 season.

But in terms of a more specific answer to this question, expect Busch to have at least 201 career NASCAR victories under his belt by the time March ends. He is set to compete in each of the remaining five NASCAR races this month, including the Cup Series and Truck Series races at Martinsville Speedway this weekend and then the Cup Series, Xfinity Series and Truck Series races at Texas Motor Speedway next weekend.

Whether he flies a “201 wins” flag when he earns his 201st career NASCAR victory like he flew a “200 wins” flag when he earned his 200th career victory remains to be seen. But if he does, expect him to do it at Martinsville Speedway this weekend or at Texas Motor Speedway next weekend.

Busch has failed to win just four of the 10 NASCAR races in which he has competed so far this season. His average finish in these 10 races is a beyond impressive 1.90. In fact, his average finish in the four races that he hasn’t won is still an impressive 3.25. In addition, he hasn’t been kept out of victory lane for two consecutive races across these three series at any point in 2019.

With all of this in mind, if I had to choose between Martinsville Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway, I believe that Busch will earn his 201st career NASCAR victory sooner rather than later and that he will do so at the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) oval in Ridgeway, Virginia as opposed to the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) high-banked oval in Fort Worth, Texas.

Expect Busch to pull off this historic feat in the Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway as opposed to the Truck Series race, similar to the way he earned his 200th career NASCAR victory in the Cup Series race at Auto Club Speedway after finishing in second place in the Xfinity Series race at the track.

In nine Truck Series starts at Martinsville Speedway, Busch has earned just one victory, and his average finish there is just 10.44, which is subpar by his standards. Meanwhile, in his last seven Cup Series starts there, he has earned two victories, two second place finishes, one fourth place finish and two fifth place finishes, giving him an average finish of 2.86 during this span.

When will Kyle Busch earn his 201st career NASCAR victory to break the all-time record of 200 that he currently shares with the legendary Richard Petty? In which series will he earn his 201st career victory? Given how the 2019 season has started for him, expect to know the answers to these two questions in the very near future.