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NASCAR Cup Series: Playoff cut line battle could become intense

By Asher Fair

TALLADEGA, AL - APRIL 26: Alex Bowman, driver of the #88 Nationwide Chevrolet, Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet, and William Byron, driver of the #24 Hertz Chevrolet, practice for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 26, 2019 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
TALLADEGA, AL - APRIL 26: Alex Bowman, driver of the #88 Nationwide Chevrolet, Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet, and William Byron, driver of the #24 Hertz Chevrolet, practice for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 26, 2019 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /
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The battle to get into the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs based on point totals could end up being one with a high degree of intensity.

Following the 10th race of the 36-race 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season, the GEICO 500, at Talladega Superspeedway, 16 races remain on the regular season schedule before the 10-race playoffs are scheduled to begin.

As of now, six drivers have locked themselves into the playoffs as a result of the fact that they have each won at least one race so far this season.

Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. have earned three victories, two victories and one victory, respectively, while Team Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have earned two victories and one victory, respectively. Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott became the most recent race winner by winning the GEICO 500.

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Several drivers who have not yet won a race this season still appear to be in a pretty good position as far as making the playoffs is concerned, although there is still plenty of time for that to change.

Six drivers who have not yet won a race this season sit between 32 and 116 points above the playoff cut line, and five of those drivers are at least 54 points above it.

However, the nine drivers who sit directly below these six drivers sit within 32 points of one another, and none of them are more than 19 points away from the cut line, signaling that an intense battle to qualify for the playoffs based on point totals may very well already be brewing.

Here is the current playoff picture as it pertains to the nine drivers who are within 19 points of the playoff cut line.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
13th – Austin Dillon, #3, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 253 (+19)
14th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 251 (+17)
15th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 239 (+5)
16th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 238 (+4)
——————- PLAYOFF CUT LINE ——————-
17th – Paul Menard, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 234 (-4)
18th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 230 (-8)
19th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 226 (-12)
20th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 223 (-15)
21st – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 221 (-17)

Of these nine drivers, five qualified for the playoffs last season while four did not. Dillon, Bowman, Johnson, Jones and Larson all did while Newman, Menard, Byron and Stenhouse Jr. did not.

The only driver ahead of these nine drivers who did not qualify for the playoffs last season is Stewart-Haas Racing’s Daniel Suarez, who sits in 12th place in the championship standings, 32 points ahead of the playoff cut line.

What does this all mean?

It means that with 16 races remaining in the regular season, the battle to qualify for this year’s playoffs based on point totals is shaping up to be an intense one in which every position in every stage and in every race is going to matter because of just how close these bubble drivers are in relation to one another as far as their point totals are concerned.

These points will matter even more if a driver below the playoff cut line (potentially a driver who currently sits in 22nd place or lower in the championship standings) wins a race to lock himself into the playoffs, in which case the cut line would move up by one spot and make the battle to qualify for the playoffs based on point totals even more intense.

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Which drivers who are currently hovering right around the playoff cut line will end up qualifying for the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs based on their point totals? Will any of them lock themselves into the playoffs by winning at least one of the regular season’s final 16 races? Will any surprise drivers who are not currently in the top 21 in the championship standings shake things up by winning one of these 16 races to lock themselves into the playoffs?

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