NASCAR Cup Series: 2019 playoff picture coming into focus

Through the first 15 races of the 26-race 2019 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the playoff picture has begun to come into focus.

There is no NASCAR Cup Series action on the schedule for this weekend, marking the penultimate off weekend before the playoffs are scheduled to begin in mid-September. Of the 26 races on the regular season schedule, 11 remain, and with 15 races in the books, the playoff picture is coming into focus.

No driver outside of the top 16 in the championship standings has gotten into the playoffs by winning something other than a restrictor plate race since the 2017 season when Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon and Hendrick Motorsports’ Kasey Kahne pulled it off.

Dillon got into the playoffs last season from 19th place in the championship standings as a result of the fact that he won the season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, a restrictor plate track.

While restrictor plate races are now a thing of the past, the new package at the superspeedways has produced a similar style of racing, so we could very well see a driver outside of the top 16 in the championship standings sneak into the playoffs by winning the race at Daytona International Speedway a few weekends from now.

For several drivers, a victory in this race, the Coke Zero Sugar 400, on Saturday, July 6 may be their only hope at getting into the four-round, 10-race playoffs, as they are already fairly far below the playoff cut line.

If none of these drivers is victorious in this 160-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona International Speedway oval in Daytona Beach, Florida, we should be set for a 16-driver playoffs featuring the 16 drivers who finish the regular season in the top 16 in the championship standings.

Six drivers are already locked into the playoffs as a result of the fact that they have been victorious this season.

Here is a breakdown of these six drivers.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Wins (Playoff Points (Behind))
1st – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 (25 (-))
2nd – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 3 (19 (-6))
3rd – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 3 (17 (-8))
4th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 2 (16 (-9))
5th – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 2  (11 (-14))
6th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 (7 (-18))

Here is a breakdown of the 16 drivers who are not locked into the playoffs but are either currently above the playoff cut line or not more than one race’s worth of points below it.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
7th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 539 (+178)
8th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 485 (+124)
9th – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 434 (+73)
10th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 433 (+72)
11th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 426 (+65)
12th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 404 (+43)
13th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 401 (+40)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 383 (+22)
15th – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 369 (+8)
16th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 364 (+3)
————————- PLAYOFF CUT LINE ————————-
17th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 361 (-3)
18th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 357 (-7)
19th – Paul Menard, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 336 (-28)
20th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 326 (-38)
21st – Austin Dillon, #3, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 306 (-58)
22nd – Chris Buescher, #37, JTG Daugherty Racing, Chevrolet: 304 (-60)

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Several of the drivers above the playoff cut line who have not yet locked themselves into the playoffs are, for all intents and purposes, safe. Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman and Aric Almirola are pretty much locked into the playoffs given how far they are above the cut line, and a case could be made to put Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez in this group as well.

As for Paul Menard, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon and Chris Buescher, while they could still qualify for the playoffs based on their point totals, outscoring multiple drivers by the amounts that they have to will be a tall task, especially given the teams for whom some of these other drivers drive. As a result, winning may end up being their only option when it comes to advancing.

This effectively creates a playoff cut line bubble battle for three positions among five drivers, of whom all five currently sit within just 26 points of one another.

Not including William Byron, who currently sits 22 points above the playoff cut line in 14th place in the championship standings, the other four drivers are separated by a mere 12 points.

Kyle Larson leads this pack of four drivers by sitting in 15th in the standings, eight points above the cut line, while Ryan Newman is bringing up the rear of this pack in 18th in the standings and seven points below the cut line.

With the rest of the playoff picture looking the way it does, this battle, which certainly still includes Byron, is slated to be the crucial battle when it comes to determining who the 16 drivers in this year’s playoff field will be. Three of these drivers will likely make it in while two will not.

Which drivers who are not already locked into the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will end up qualifying for this four-round, 10-race span that will ultimately crown the next champion? While the playoff picture is undoubtedly coming into focus with 11 races remaining on the regular season schedule, a few playoffs positions are most definitely still up for grabs.