NASCAR Cup Series: Early 2019 16-driver playoff field prediction

Which 16 drivers will see their 2019 NASCAR Cup Series championship aspirations remain intact after the regular season ends in September?

Of the 36 races on the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, 15 have been completed, leaving 11 more on the schedule before the four-round, 10-race playoffs begin in mid-September.

Which 16 drivers will compete in these four-round, 10-race playoffs in an attempt to advance to the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway and be crowned the sport’s newest champion in mid-November?

Assuming that none of the drivers who finish the regular season outside of the top 16 in the championship standings manage to qualify for the playoffs by winning a race, which seems like a fairly safe assumption to make at this point in the season, the battle for the 16 playoff positions should be among 18 drivers.

In reality, this battle is a battle for 10 playoff positions among 12 drivers, as six drivers are already locked into the playoffs as a result of the fact that they have won at least one race already this season.

Here is a breakdown of these six drivers.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Wins (Playoff Points (Behind))
1st – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 (25 (-))
2nd – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 3 (19 (-6))
3rd – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 3 (17 (-8))
4th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 2 (16 (-9))
5th – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 2  (11 (-14))
6th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 (7 (-18))

Here is a breakdown of the 12 drivers who are not locked into the playoffs but can be considered legitimate contenders to change that in the near future.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
7th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 539 (+178)
8th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 485 (+124)
9th – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 434 (+73)
10th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 433 (+72)
11th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 426 (+65)
12th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 404 (+43)
13th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 401 (+40)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 383 (+22)
15th – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 369 (+8)
16th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 364 (+3)
————————- PLAYOFF CUT LINE ————————-
17th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 361 (-3)
18th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 357 (-7)

Four other drivers are within one race’s worth of points below the playoff cut line, but given the drivers who they would have to outscore by these amounts to get into the playoffs based on their point totals, they might as well take up the “win or go home strategy” awhile.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
19th – Paul Menard, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 336 (-28)
20th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 326 (-38)
21st – Austin Dillon, #3, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 306 (-58)
22nd – Chris Buescher, #37, JTG Daugherty Racing, Chevrolet: 304 (-60)

These four drivers should not be considered legitimate threats to get into the playoffs unless they win one of the regular season’s final 11 races, and the only true wild card race among those 11 races is the race at Daytona International Speedway, the Coke Zero Sugar 400, on Saturday, July 6.

While not mathematically locked into the playoffs, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez are all in pretty safe positions when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs based on their point totals.

As a result, the battle to round out the playoff field is effectively a battle for three playoff positions among five drivers, and these five drivers all currently sit within 26 points of one another. In fact, four of them sit within just 12 points of one another.

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So which three drivers out of William Byron, Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman and Erik Jones will see their championship aspirations live on beyond the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday, September 8?

Byron looks poised to advance to the playoffs in his sophomore season and his first season with Chad Knaus as his crew chief. From the 2018 season to the 2019 season, he has been arguably the sport’s most improved driver despite the fact that he is still searching for not only the first victory of his Cup Series career but the first top five finish of it.

The 21-year-old Charlotte, North Carolina native finished in 23rd place in the championship standings last season, and he currently sits in 14th through the first 15 races of this season. Additionally, he is tied for the series lead with three pole positions so far this season, and he has already matched his 2018 top 10 finish total of four.

Meanwhile, Larson has struggled mightily to secure good results, and he has struggled mightily to close out races that he should have won. Yet even with all of that considered, the man who is still searching for his first victory in nearly two years is still above the playoff cut line, albeit only slightly. The only way I can see him dropping out is if things get worse for him, and I don’t see a terrible situation getting much more terrible.

The battle for the final playoff position is poised to come down between Johnson, Newman and Jones, and at this point, it’s anybody’s guess as to who the advantage belongs to. It’s hard to bet against the seven-time champion Johnson, but at the same time, he hasn’t won a race in more than two years and has simply not recorded great results over the past three seasons.

That said, much like Larson, even with his great deal of struggles, he still finds himself above the playoff cut line.

Newman, meanwhile, has consistently outperformed his equipment to get himself into the playoff discussion. His season-low finish is 24th place, which is tied for the third best season-low finish among the season-low finishes of all drivers. But how long will he be able to maintain this pace given the fact that he doesn’t drive for a powerhouse team like Byron, Larson, Johnson and Jones do?

Jones has been similar to Larson in that he has failed to capitalize on opportunities, although his opportunities have been more along the lines of consistency than winning races.

Driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, the team that have won nine of the season’s first 15 races and have three drivers, all of whom are in the top seven in the championship standings, with multiple victories in these races, Jones’s performance has been underwhelming to say the very least, but he still is a dark horse candidate to win at pretty much any track. The question is, if he can’t, will his consistency pick up to get him into the playoffs?

Of these five drivers, my three picks to get into the playoffs are the three drivers who are currently above the playoff cut line, Byron, Larson and Johnson.

Which 16 drivers will make up the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoff field and enter the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, September 15 with their championship hopes for the 2019 season still intact?