IndyCar: Should Colton Herta even consider leaving Harding Steinbrenner Racing?

Rumors have begun to circulate that Colton Herta may drive for Team Penske or Andretti Autosport after the 2019 IndyCar season. But should he even consider leaving Harding Steinbrenner Racing at this point?

With the speed that he has shown in his rookie IndyCar season, speed that led to a victory in just the third start of his IndyCar career to make him the youngest race winner in IndyCar history, Harding Steinbrenner Racing rookie Colton Herta has been the subject of recent silly season rumors.

The most prevalent two of these rumors suggest that the 19-year-old Valencia, California native could join Team Penske as their fourth driver next season or that he could join Andretti Autosport as their fourth driver if Alexander Rossi leaves the team to become Team Penske’s fourth driver.

Team Penske have not had four full-time drivers since the 2017 season, after which they did not retain Helio Castroneves on a full-time basis and did away with their fourth full-time car.

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But should Herta even entertain the thought of leaving Harding Steinbrenner Racing at this point?

Including the first pole position of his IndyCar career for this afternoon’s scheduled running of the REV Group Grand Prix at Road America, the pole position that made him the youngest polesitter in IndyCar history, Herta’s average starting position is 6.30 through the season’s first 10 races, which trails only the average starting positions of Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon (5.80) and Andretti Autosport’s Alexander Rossi (5.90) up to this point in the season.

Harding Steinbrenner Racing have given him the speed that he needs to compete at the front of the field at each and every race track to which the series travels.

He has started no lower than 11th place in a race all season long, something that no other full-time driver in the series can say, and that season-low 11th place starting position came a result of a penalty he was issued during qualifying for the season opener on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida.

The driver of the #88 Honda has not started outside of the top 10 aside of this single instance in what was just the second start of his IndyCar career.

At the end of the day, however, there is certainly more to racing than raw speed. Results are something completely different, and Herta’s results, aside of his maiden IndyCar victory at Circuit of the Americas, have been disastrous.

Aside of this victory, Herta has just one top 11 finish this season, and that was an eighth place finish in the season opener. Since he won the season’s second race, his average finishing position has been a disastrous 20.71. His average finishing position as a whole this season is 17.11.

Among the sport’s 19 full-time drivers, only the average finishing position of Matheus Leist, who drives for the lowly A.J. Foyt Enterprises team, is worse. Leist’s average finishing position is 17.33.

The disparity between Herta’s average starting position of 6.30 and his average finishing position of 17.11 is a whopping 10.81.

The next highest disparity for any driver between these two statistics among drivers whose average starting positions are better than their average finishing positions is 3.17, as the average starting position of Team Penske’s Will Power is 6.50 while his average finishing position is 9.67.

Driver error has been the cause of several of Herta’s lackluster results, but so have mechanical issues and other things that have been out of the rookie’s control. He has finished just four of the season’s nine races thus far despite the fact that he has been one of the few drivers who has looked like he has a legitimate shot to win any of them.

In terms of raw speed, Team Penske and Andretti Autosport would both be able to provide Herta with something similar if not better than what Harding Steinbrenner Racing have had to offer him.

Let’s not forget the fact that Harding Steinbrenner Racing switched their engine manufacturer from Chevrolet to Honda last December after Harding Racing and Steinbrenner Racing merged last September, and they formed a technical alliance with Andretti Autosport ahead of the 2019 season as well. And let’s not forget the fact that Team Penske are, quite simply, Team Penske.

Driving for one of these two powerhouse teams would have multiple advantages aside of great speed. The resources that these teams have at their disposal are unmatched when compared to the rest of the field, except maybe Chip Ganassi Racing. Even still, no Chip Ganassi Racing driver who is not named Scott Dixon has won a race since the 2014 season.

Additionally, sponsorship issues would most likely be far less prevalent than they have been for Herta this season if he ends up driving for one of these two teams. He and the first-year Harding Steinbrenner Racing operation were close to not even being able to close out the 2019 season before landing a multimillion dollar sponsorship deal with GESS and Capstone.

On the flip side, driving for one of these two teams, Herta would be expected to perform at a championship level given the potential that he has displayed driving for the one-car Harding Steinbrenner Racing team.

A span of seven races with an average finishing position of 20.71, the worst among full-time drivers during this seven-race span by far, would not cut it behind the wheel of a Team Penske or Andretti Autosport machine. Ever.

As fast as Herta has been this season, the uber-talented driver only sits in 16th place in the championship standings ahead of only three full-time drivers, and he sits in fourth out of the four full-time rookies. For a driver who has recorded a total of six top five starting positions in 10 races, this, once again, would not cut it driving for one of these two teams.

The bottom line is that Herta still needs to work on his consistency and proving himself as a true perennial frontrunner before leaving Harding Steinbrenner Racing to drive for Team Penske or Andretti Autosport. While making such a move could pay off, it could also end in disaster, especially if made prematurely.

Harding Steinbrenner Racing give Herta everything he needs to be a contender, so it’s not like he is sacrificing a huge gain in performance simply for developmental purposes. It’s not like he is simply “learning the ropes” by driving an 18th place-caliber A.J. Foyt Enterprises Chevrolet each race to prepare for a long career driving for one of the sport’s top teams.

All the development that Herta will endure driving for Harding Steinbrenner Racing will be endured with the possibility of experiencing success comparable to what he could experience driving for either of these two top-tier teams.

So why rush? Let’s also not forget the fact that he is still a teenager.

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For which team will Colton Herta drive in the 2020 IndyCar season? Should he even consider leaving Harding Steinbrenner Racing for either Team Penske or Andretti Autosport assuming he gets the opportunity to do so, or should he stick around at the one-car team for at least another season?