NASCAR Cup Series: William Byron’s playoff scenario is particularly intriguing

William Byron’s path to the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs and his path when/if he gets there are particularly intriguing, largely thanks to crew chief Chad Knaus.

After a disappointing rookie NASCAR Cup Series season last year that resulted in him finishing in 23rd place in the championship standings as the only one of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers who failed to qualify for the playoffs, William Byron is in position to qualify for the 16-driver playoffs this season.

However, as for how he is going to do it and how he is going to perform when he gets there is particularly intriguing, and a lot of this can be chalked up to how he has performed with crew chief Chad Knaus.

After spending 17 seasons and winning an all-time record seven Cup Series championship as the crew chief for Jimmie Johnson and the #48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet team, Knaus was moved to Byron and the #24 team ahead of this season, as Kevin Meendering took over his position at the #48 team.

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Byron has undoubtedly been one of the most improved drivers if not the most improved driver so far this season. He currently sits in 14th place in the championship standings, notably ahead of Johnson in 17th. He sits 29 points ahead of the playoff cut line (Johnson) with 10 races remaining in the 26-race regular season.

With all things considered, the 21-year-old Charlotte, North Carolina should qualify for the playoffs, and assuming he does, he will be an under-the-radar driver to watch once he gets there.

If there is one thing the youngster does not lack despite the fact that he is still looking for the first top five finish of his Cup Series career following his first 52 races, it is raw speed.

Byron is tied for the series lead in pole positions so far this season with three, and he leads all drivers with seven front row starts. No other drivers has started on the front row in more than five races so far this season. His average starting position through the season’s first 16 races is 10.8, which ranks fifth among all drivers.

Byron’s laps led total of 171 ranks ninth among all drivers so far this season, and he has led 10 of the season’s first 16 races. Only three drivers, of whom all three are in the top four in the championship standings and two are in the top two, have led more races than Byron has.

But that’s where the basic statistical outlook of his much-improved season ends.

Knaus has made a habit of throwing Byron onto alternate strategies, and many times, these alternate strategies look destined to fail.

On several occasions, Byron was left out well after many other drivers made pit stops in the hope of a caution flag period, notably in the race at Texas Motor Speedway in late March after he qualified in second place and his #24 Chevrolet was about as fast as it has been all season.

Meanwhile, that caution flag period never came, and he ended up wasting several laps running slower on older tires while other drivers were out completing fast laps on newer tires. He still managed to rally for a solid sixth place finish, which is tied for the highest finish of his career.

The race in early May at Dover International Speedway also stands out. Byron, despite the fact that he qualified all the way up in second place again, and Team Penske’s Joey Logano went on an alternate strategy early on in the race to gain stage points, and they were left in a terrible position for the rest of the race. Byron rallied to finish in eighth while Logano finished right ahead of him in seventh.

But it was this past Sunday’s race at Sonoma Raceway that was particularly intriguing.

Byron had the car to beat, hands down. He started the race in second place, took the lead on the opening lap, and led every lap in stage one. He stayed out of the pits at the end of the stage to take the stage victory and the 10 points that came along with it, effectively relegating himself to a poor position for stage two since he would start that stage behind everybody who came into the pits prior to the ending of stage one.

A similar thing happened at the end of stage two. Once again, Byron did not pit before the stage-ending caution flag period, and he finished in third place to gain eight more points.

At this point, barring a timely caution flag period in stage three, he and his team had basically thrown away their chances of winning the race in a car capable of dominating it just to gain an extra playoff point and 18 championship points.

Unsurprisingly, Byron finished in 19th place — but with the fifth highest point total in the race among all drivers.

It’s almost like Knaus knows that Byron has the speed needed to win races, but he also knows that he is not quite ready to win races yet to the point where he would risk points that could get him into the playoffs only to have his driver come up short of the ultimate goal.

As noted, Byron is still searching for what would be the first top five finish of his Cup Series career, and last season, he many times failed to capitalize on strong starting positions, resulting in an average finishing position that was 4.4 positions lower than his average starting position.  So it would be hard to blame Knaus if this is his assumption.

So the team have taken the safe route to secure Byron as many stage points as possible, and it has, for the most part, paid off, as he sits in 11th place in stage points so far this season with 81, ahead of four drivers he trails in the championship standings.

That’s where the prospect of the playoffs gets a bit hairy.

Hendrick Motorsports, despite their struggles over the last few seasons, still have fast race cars. While their adjustment to the Camaro ZL1 that replaced the SS for Chevrolet teams ahead of the 2018 season has been rocky, it has not been as bad as it has been made out to seem.

There is a reason why they lead all teams with six pole positions so far this year, and it’s not other teams not showing up to qualify.

But once the playoffs roll around, what will the plan be for Byron?

Will the focus shift to winning races as opposed to relying on stage points and decent finishes to advance through the playoffs?

Does Byron have something to prove throughout the remainder of the regular season before Knaus lets him loose and lets him utilize the speed that he has shown throughout the entire season instead of continuing to have him simply settle for stage points?

Are Byron and Knaus currently just trying different strategy-based techniques to prepare for when the playoffs roll around?

Even though Byron’s results have clearly not reflected the speed that he has shown so far this season, I’m not saying that he is simply a caged championship contender who is ready to break free from his enclosure and win 10 races and the championship this season.

But it would not be surprising to see him find victory lane at some point in the playoffs, if not before the regular season ends to officially secure his playoff berth. He has what it takes to do it; it’s just a matter of putting all the pieces together, from speed to strategy to consistency.

Byron has the speed portion of this puzzle figured out, and with that, the consistency will come. Additionally, in terms of a season-long battle, it’s hard to doubt the strategy calls of a seven-time champion crew chief, even if they seem like ridiculous result-ruining decisions at the time, as many have so far this season.

Assuming he advances to the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs later this year for the first time in his career, how far is William Byron capable of advancing? How far will he end up advancing? He will undoubtedly be a dark horse candidate to surprise a lot of people if he does manage to qualify for the playoffs given everything he has accomplished so far this season and how he has accomplished it.