NASCAR Cup Series: Who should drive Joe Gibbs Racing’s fourth car in 2020?

Will Christopher Bell be promoted to the NASCAR Cup Series as Joe Gibbs Racing’s fourth driver in the 2020 season, or will Erik Jones retain his ride?

Christopher Bell is set to return to Joe Gibbs Racing in the 2020 NASCAR season, but whether he does so as a third-year Xfinity Series driver of the #20 Toyota or as the rookie driver of the #20 Toyota in the Cup Series remains to be seen.

Bell’s future will likely hinge on the contract of current #20 Toyota Cup Series driver Erik Jones, whose situation is the least clear of the situations of the current four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers.

Kyle Busch isn’t going anywhere after signing what is believed to be at least a three-year contract extension earlier this year. Martin Truex Jr. isn’t going anywhere after one season driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, especially given the success that he had throughout the first half of the season.

Denny Hamlin is constantly the subject of replacement rumors, but every year, reality sets in and literally nothing happens. Don’t expect that to change much this year. But Jones is still seeking a contract extension, and months after first stating that a new contract wasn’t his focus, he is still seeking one.

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If it comes down to a straight-up decision between Bell and Jones, who will Joe Gibbs Racing name the common teammate to Busch, Truex Jr. and Hamlin for the 2020 season?

With all things considered, Joe Gibbs Racing can’t afford to not go with Christopher Bell, who is widely considered the top driver currently not competing at the Cup level. Sure, they’ve locked him in for the 2020 season regardless of if he competes in the Xfinity Series or the Cup Series, but he is a driver who believed he was ready — and was ready — to be promoted to the Cup Series even ahead of this season.

While Bell wants to remain loyal to Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing can’t afford to run the risk of him competing in the Xfinity Series again, going through the whole “Do we promote him?” saga for a third consecutive year and then losing him to a rival team such as Stewart-Haas Racing.

Stewart-Haas Racing team co-owner Tony Stewart has always been interested in Bell, in large part due to the dirt racing background that the two share, and it would surprise nobody if Bell ends up driving one of the team’s four Ford Mustangs in the Cup Series if he isn’t promoted to Joe Gibbs Racing’s Cup Series team very, very soon.

The only way that this logic changes is if Jones starts improving, and by a great amount. He is the only one of Joe Gibbs Racing’s four drivers who is not in the top six in the championship standings and in the top five in the playoff picture, and he sits below the playoff cut line all the way down in 17th place without a victory since he earned his first career Cup Series victory in the race at Daytona International Speedway last July.

In what was Hamlin’s worst season in several years, the only Joe Gibbs Racing driver who Jones finished ahead of in the championship standings last year was Daniel Suarez, and after two seasons driving for and struggling at Joe Gibbs Racing, Suarez was released in favor of Truex Jr. This happened despite the fact that he won the 2016 Xfinity Series championship for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Jones, unlike Suarez, didn’t even win an Xfinity Series championship, so suffice it to say he is not immune to a potential demotion/release.

Jones finished in fourth place in the championship standings in the 2016 Xfinity Series season, his lone season driving full-time for Joe Gibbs Racing in this season, before he spent his rookie Cup Series season at the Joe Gibbs Racing-affiliated Furniture Row Racing in 2017. While he failed to qualify for the playoffs, teammate Truex Jr. won the championship.

As it is, Bell is over 24 and a half years old while Jones just turned 23, and through Jones’s first three seasons competing in the Cup Series, it’s clear that he, not Bell, could benefit a lot more from another season or two in the Xfinity Series.

Bell has been and is more than ready to make the jump to the Cup Series, with or without an Xfinity Series title to his name. After advancing to the Championship 4 last year with a rookie record of seven victories, he sits tied atop the wins list with four victories with Cole Custer, another talented young prospect, not even halfway through the 33-race 2019 season, and he is poised to make a championship run once again this year.

Will Erik Jones return for what would be his third consecutive season driving the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in the NASCAR Cup Series in 2020, or will Christopher Bell be promoted to the Cup Series as the driver of the #20 Toyota and compete for the 2020 Sunoco Rookie of the Year Award? What should Joe Gibbs Racing decide?