Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Larson have both not won a NASCAR Cup Series race since the 2017 season, but both had strong runs in last Sunday’s race at Chicagoland Speedway. Who will end his win drought first?
Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson drove to his record 11th victory at Dover International Speedway in June of 2017 to secure the 83rd victory of his NASCAR Cup Series career, moving him into a sixth place tie with Cale Yarborough on the all-time Cup Series wins list.
He hasn’t been back to victory lane since. After entering the 2017 season having never gone on a win drought of more than 24 races in his career, which began in the 2001 season, his active win drought is up to 76 races.
A few months later, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson, who finished in second place behind Johnson in Johnson’s most recent victory, continued his breakout season with his fourth victory of 2017 and the fifth victory of his Cup Series career, as he won the regular season finale at Richmond Raceway in September.
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He hasn’t been back to victory lane since, as his active win drought is now up to 63 races, marking his longest win drought since he began his career with 98 races before finally getting to victory lane at Michigan International Speedway in August of 2016.
Of Johnson and Larson, who will get back to victory lane first?
Both drivers ran well in this past Sunday’s race at Chicagoland Speedway, with Larson finishing in second place behind Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman and Johnson finishing in fourth behind those two drivers and Team Penske’s Joey Logano in third.
This race produced the strongest result for Chevrolet in quite some time, as the Chevrolet teams had struggled mightily since the Camaro ZL1 replaced the SS ahead of the 2018 season, which has undoubtedly played a key role in the struggles of Larson and Johnson.
I have no doubt that both drivers are on the verge of getting back to victory lane and that both will do so before the 2019 season concludes. But who will win first?
The win droughts of Johnson and Larson have come about very differently. Johnson has simply lacked speed. He has finished in third place twice during his 76-race win drought, but his fourth place finish in this race at Chicagoland Speedway marked what was by far his best performance in a race from start to finish as far as his speed was concerned.
Meanwhile, Larson has, for lack of a better word, choked in so many races over the last few seasons. During his 63-race win drought, he has finished in the top three on 14 occasions, and several of these occasions have stemmed from him blowing late leads.
Last year’s April race at Bristol Motor Speedway, May race at Kansas Speedway, July race at Chicagoland Speedway, September race at Darlington Raceway and September race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval were all Larson’s to lose.
He lost all of them.
The same can be said for this year’s February race at Atlanta Motor Speedway and June race at Chicagoland Speedway.
By this logic alone, I’d go with Johnson to win a race before Larson. Larson just can’t seem to catch a break as it is, and when he does, he goes and blows it, whereas Johnson is finally starting to come on strong, and everyone knows that when the seven-time champion is performing well, he wins races.
However, by that same logic, Larson is bound to have a race finally go his way after all this time, and Johnson is only starting to ascend to the level of competitiveness that will make him a perennial contender to win races like he had been prior to last season.
I’m going with the #42 Chevrolet to get back to victory lane before the #48 Chevrolet, but expect both Kyle Larson and Jimmie Johnson to get back there before the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season ends.