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IndyCar: Points implications of Josef Newgarden’s last-lap spin

By Asher Fair

SONOMA, CA - SEPTEMBER 15: Josef Newgarden, driver of the #2 hum by Verizon Chevrolet looks on following practice for the GoPro Grand Prix of Sonoma at Sonoma Raceway on September 15, 2017 in Sonoma, California. (Photo by Robert Reiners/Getty Images)
SONOMA, CA - SEPTEMBER 15: Josef Newgarden, driver of the #2 hum by Verizon Chevrolet looks on following practice for the GoPro Grand Prix of Sonoma at Sonoma Raceway on September 15, 2017 in Sonoma, California. (Photo by Robert Reiners/Getty Images) /
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Josef Newgarden lost more than a fourth place finish in Sunday’s IndyCar race at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course with his last-lap spin.

When Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden took the white flag in Sunday’s IndyCar race at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, the Honda Indy 200, he was running in fourth place.

Most importantly, the championship standings leader was running two positions ahead of chief championship rival Alexander Rossi of Andretti Autosport in sixth place.

But entering turn two of the 13-turn, 2.258-mile (3.634-kilometer) Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course road course in Lexington, Ohio on lap 90 of 90 in this race, Newgarden tried to drive his #2 Chevrolet past the #28 Honda of Andretti Autosport’s Ryan Hunter-Reay for third place.

Here’s what happened.

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As a result, Newgarden finished the race in 14th place, and after entering the race with a 29-point advantage (487 to 458) over Rossi in second place in the championship standings, he left with only a 16-point advantage.

Additionally, Team Penske’s Simon Pagenaud stayed in championship contention with his sixth place finish while Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon did so by winning the race by just 0.0934 seconds over rookie teammate Felix Rosenqvist.

Here are the how the top four drivers in the championship standings stack up against one another following the 17-race 2019 season’s 13th race.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Engine: Points (Behind)
1st – Josef Newgarden, #2, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 504 (0)
2nd – Alexander Rossi, #27, Andretti Autosport, Honda: 488 (-16)
3rd – Simon Pagenaud, #22, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 457 (-47)
4th – Scott Dixon, #9, Chip Ganassi Racing, Honda: 442 (-62)

Had Newgarden not spun out and finished in fourth place, he would have scored 33 points (32 for his fourth place finish and one for leading 11 laps of the race) as opposed to 17 points (16 for his 14th place finish and one for leading these 11 laps).

Additionally, Rossi would have finished in sixth place and scored 28 points as opposed to fifth with 30 points, and Pagenaud would have finished in seventh and scored 26 points as opposed to sixth with 28 points.

Here is how the top four drivers in the championship standings would stack up against one another had Newgarden not spun out.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Engine: Points (Behind)
1st – Josef Newgarden, #2, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 520 (0)
2nd – Alexander Rossi, #27, Andretti Autosport, Honda: 486 (-34)
3rd – Simon Pagenaud, #22, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 455 (-65)
4th – Scott Dixon, #9, Chip Ganassi Racing, Honda: 442 (-78)

Had Newgarden successfully taken third place away from Hunter-Reay, he would have scored an additional three points for finishing in third place, and Rossi, Pagenaud and Dixon would be three points further behind him than the second chart above illustrates.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Engine: Points (Behind)
1st – Josef Newgarden, #2, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 523 (0)
2nd – Alexander Rossi, #27, Andretti Autosport, Honda: 486 (-37)
3rd – Simon Pagenaud, #22, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 455 (-68)
4th – Scott Dixon, #9, Chip Ganassi Racing, Honda: 442 (-81)

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Will Josef Newgarden win the 2019 IndyCar championship anyway despite his critical last-lap error in the Honda Indy 200? If not, will the points that he lost and that his title rivals gained as a result of this error be the difference?