Formula 1: When will Lewis Hamilton break Michael Schumacher’s championships record?

Lewis Hamilton is steadily approaching Michael Schumacher’s all-time Formula 1 championships record. When will he tie it, and when will he break it?

Two years ago at this time, Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton was a three-time Formula 1 champion, and he trailed Scuderia Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel, a four-time champion, in the driver standings with 11 of the 2017 season’s 20 races having been completed.

Vettel was poised to become the third five-time champion in Formula 1 history, and Ferrari’s resurgence was set to become undebatable.

But two years later, the 34-year-old Briton, not the 32-year-old German, is already poised to become the sport’s second ever six-time champion even with 10 of the 2019 season’s 21 scheduled races having not yet been contested.

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Hamilton ended up winning the championships in the 2017 and 2018 seasons over Vettel in second place in the driver standings, and he leads teammate Valtteri Bottas by a comfortable 41 points (225 to 184) having won seven of the season’s first 11 races in what has been another dominant season for the Silver Arrows.

Hamilton is currently tied with Juan Manuel Fangio on the all-time Formula 1 championships list with five, and the only driver who he trails is seven-time champion Michael Schumacher. Poised to become six-time champion before the 2019 season ends, when will Hamilton tie Schumacher’s record, and when will he break it?

By the time the 2020 season ends, we could very well be looking at Hamilton as Formula 1’s second seven-time champion. Both Scuderia Ferrari and Aston Martin Red Bull Racing were expected to challenge Mercedes this season, but the five-time reigning constructor champions have been dominant, winning nine of the season’s first 11 races.

As a result, even if Mercedes don’t have as good of a season next year, they are still going to be the favorites to win the championship, and that inherently makes Hamilton the favorite to win the driver championship given his recent success against his teammates. He has only failed to finish as Mercedes’ top driver once since he joined the team ahead of the 2013 season.

Even if Bottas gets replaced, which has been speculated for quite some time, Hamilton should have the upper hand within the Brackley-based unless they sign Max Verstappen, who could make things very, very interesting. But the Verstappen to Mercedes rumors have quieted down as of late with Red Bull Racing’s marked improvements.

Beyond the 2020 season, however, things get more interesting. While Hamilton has not hinted about retirement, his current contract expires at the end of the 2020 season, and the 2021 season is set to mark the beginning of significant new regulations, which may or may not alter the hierarchy within Formula 1.

That said, assuming he returns to Formula 1 on a new contract in two years, he will most assuredly be the championship favorite once again. The question is whether or not he will do so driving for Mercedes, and if so, whether or not Mercedes will still be the championship favorites.

When will Lewis Hamilton become the first eight-time champion in Formula 1 history? Will he actually do so before he retires or will Michael Schumacher’s mark remain the all-time record, even if Hamilton does manage to tie it? Hamilton should certainly become the second seven-time champion next year, but the new regulations ahead of the 2021 season make things questionable after that.