Three races remain on the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, and the battle at the playoff bubble is tight. Four drivers sit with 22 points, with two above it and two below it.
With three of the 26 races on the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule having not yet been contested, much of the playoff picture, as in 14 of the 16 playoff positions, look pretty clear and well-established.
Nine drivers have locked themselves into the playoffs by winning at least one of the season’s first 23 races. In fact, seven of these nine drivers have won more than one race.
Here is a list of the nine race winners so far this season.
Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Wins (Playoff Points (Behind))
1st – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 (29 (-))
2nd – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 (23 (-6))
3rd – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 3 (19 (-10))
4th – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 3 (18 (-11))
5th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 2 (17 (-12))
6th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 2 (14 (-15))
6th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 2 (14 (-15))
8th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 1 (6 (-23))
9th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 (5 (-24))
In addition, five drivers are in very good positions to qualify for the playoffs based on their point totals. They all sit comfortably above the playoff cut line with three races remaining in the regular season, and a few of them if not all of them will likely mathematically clinch a playoff berth even before the regular season finale begins.
Here is a list of these five drivers.
Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Ahead of Cut Line)
10th – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 654 (+101)
11th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 645 (+92)
12th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 642 (+89)
13th – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 624 (+71)
14th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 623 (+70)
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But on the playoff cut line, things are very, very tight.
For any one of the drivers who currently sit outside of the top 18 in the championship standings, it is going to take a victory to qualify for the playoffs.
Wood Brothers Racing’s Paul Menard sits in 19th place, and he sits 53 points below the playoff cut line, which is nearly one full race’s worth of points. He also sits 47 points behind the 17th place driver and 41 points behind the 18th place driver, so he will need to outscore not just one driver or two drivers but three drivers by sizable margins over the course of only three races to qualify for the playoffs based on his point total.
Simply put, it’s not happening.
Barring an upset victory, which could certainly happen, the battle for the final two playoff spots is between four drivers.
These four drivers are all within 22 points of one another, with three of them within 12, following this past Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan International Speedway, and none of their individual gaps to the playoff cut line exceed 16 points. Their average relation to the cut line is only 10 points.
Here is a list of these four drivers.
Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Ahead of/Below Cut Line)
15th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 569 (+16)
16th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 559 (+6)
————————— PLAYOFF CUT LINE —————————
17th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 553 (-6)
18th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 547 (-12)
Which two drivers will join the nine winners and the five drivers who have effectively locked up playoff berths based on their point totals in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs?
It’s anybody’s guess, and to prevent it from becoming crazier, the four drivers who are sitting right on the playoff bubble are certainly hoping to win one of the regular season’s final three races. But if they cannot do that, they are desperately hoping that somebody outside of the top 18 in the championship standings does not win one of these three races.
These three races are scheduled to take place at Bristol Motor Speedway, Darlington Raceway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Saturday, August 17, Sunday, September 1 and Sunday, September 8, respectively.