NASCAR Cup Series: Playoff outlook heading into final off weekend

By Mark Kristl | Aug 23, 2019

BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 17: NASCAR Cup Series drivers race in the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) /

With two races left in the regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series is set for its last off-weekend of the season. What does the playoff picture look like?

The NASCAR Cup Series is set for its final off-weekend of the season this weekend. This season, 24 races are in the books and two races remain in the regular season before the 10-race playoffs. With just two races left before the playoffs, the playoff picture is becoming a mainstream focus.

So what does it look like?

Nine drivers are locked in thanks to their victories this season. Those drivers are Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman. Seven playoff berths remain, and with only two races left in the regular season, at least five berths will be clinched via the point standings.

Ryan Blaney has a 97-point margin above the playoff cut line. Although he has not mathematically clinched his playoff berth, he can do so at Darlington Raceway in next Sunday evening’s Bojangles’ Southern 500.

Kyle Larson, William Byron and Aric Almirola all have at least one race’s worth of a points cushion above the playoff cut line, and Erik Jones is just three points shy of that mark.

So that’s 14 drivers in and two playoff spots left to be determined.

Ryan Newman, Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer, and Jimmie Johnson are all within 38 points of each other for those final two spots.

Here is how they stack up.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
15th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 603 (+14)
16th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 591 (+2)
————————— PLAYOFF CUT LINE —————————
17th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 589 (-2)
18th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 565 (-26)

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A great finish by one of these four drivers coupled with a poor performance by another and that playoff bubble will quickly shift.

What, then, are the chances that one of these drivers wins at either Darlington Raceway or Indianapolis Motor Speedway to clinch a playoff berth?

Among those four drivers, Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman have run the best at Darlington Raceway. Johnson is a three-time winner at the track, most recently winning there in 2012. Seven years have passed since he went to victory lane at “The Lady in Black”, but he has 12 top 10 finishes in 20 career starts there.

As for Newman, he has never won at Darlington Raceway, but he has one pole position, seven top five finishes and 13 top 10 finishes in 20 starts at the track. He also has led 334 laps there.

But nobody below these four drivers in the playoff picture has excelled at Darlington Raceway. In the last three races there, Austin Dillon has accrued the 10th most points with one top five finish. At this point in the season, however, top five finishes won’t catapult him into the playoffs.

The regular season concludes at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, which will officially set the field for the 2019 playoffs.

Both Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman have won at Indianapolis Motor Speedway before. Johnson has won there four times, most recently in July of 2012, and Newman won the following year in July of 2013.

In the last three races there, Johnson and Newman have both recorded third place finishes, and Newman has recorded an additional top 10 finish, so both drivers can still wheel their cars around the Brickyard.

Clint Bowyer has been somewhat successful in his races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. He has recorded three top five finishes and four top 10 finishes in 13 career starts there. He heads into the final two races of the regular season after a much needed “rebound weekend” at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Daniel Suarez has competed at Indianapolis Motor Speedway twice. In his first race there two years ago, he finished in seventh place. Last year, he finished in 18th.

Another driver to note is Paul Menard, who must win to make the playoffs. Fortunately, he knows how to win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway having secured his lone Cup Series victory there back in 2011. A win by Menard would shake up the playoffs in the regular season finale.

Like Menard, all drivers below the playoff cut line are chasing that elusive victory. Matt DiBenedetto came up one position short in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Can anyone pull off an upset in these final two races of the regular season? We’ll find out beginning Labor Day weekend.

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The next race on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Bojangles’ Southern 500. This historic race at Darlington Raceway is scheduled to take place on Sunday, September 1. It is set to begin at 6:00 p.m. ET with live TV coverage provided by NBC Sports Network.

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