Formula 1: The major roadblock holding up Valtteri Bottas, Esteban Ocon deals

Valtteri Bottas has been tipped to return to Mercedes in the 2020 Formula 1 season, and Esteban Ocon has been tipped to drive for Renault. But there is one major roadblock holding things up.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s big decision to make during the 2019 Formula 1 summer break is whether to re-sign Valtteri Bottas to another contract extension for the 2020 season or to promote reserve and test driver Esteban Ocon to the team alongside five-time champion Lewis Hamilton.

Team principal and CEO Toto Wolff dropped a subliminal hint a few months ago that he was not quite ready to promote the 22-year-old Frenchman when he urged Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul to sign him alongside Daniel Ricciardo for next year.

Ocon, the former Renault test driver, was supposed to drive for the team this year after Wolff and Abiteboul had a handshake deal. However, Abiteboul ended up backing out of that deal and signing Ricciardo to a two-year contract with Ricciardo announced his surprise departure from Aston Martin Red Bull Racing.

Wolff urged Abiteboul to “restore his gentleman image” by signing Ocon for the 2020 season.

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Ocon has been tipped to land at Renault on loan from Mercedes for next year and Bottas has been tipped to return to Mercedes, and confirmation of the latter is expected to be made before the month of August ends.

But because this means that Ocon would have to replace Nico Hulkenberg at the French marque, there is one major roadblock holding things up.

Abiteboul did not go into specifics about this roadblock, but it is believed that Hulkenberg’s contract, while it ends after the 2019 season concludes, contains a clause that does not allow him to be replaced at Renault unless he lands with another team for next year.

As a result, Abiteboul hasn’t ruled out retaining the 32-year-old German, which could make things very interesting for Mercedes as it pertains to Bottas and Ocon. Here is what he had to say, according to Express.

"“Nico’s contract, the initial term is coming to an end at the end of this year but there is some mechanism of options as has been commented on press which I’m not going to disclose in the details that can kick in, so it’s maybe that we continue our journey with Nico.”"

Hulkenberg previously stated that he is “likely” to return to Renault next year, but amid the Bottas and Ocon rumors, he has been rumored as a possible replacement candidate for Romain Grosjean at Haas.

However, it has not only not been confirmed that Grosjean will not return to Formula 1’s lone American next year, but there is also a somewhat interesting history between Haas’ Kevin Magnussen and Hulkenberg.

While that has been reported as “water under the bridge” between the two drivers, team principal Guenther Steiner may want to avoid the risk of having more on-track tension between teammates, as this is one of the key issues that have plagued the team this year.

Yet if Haas don’t sign Hulkenberg, that could cause several other headaches.

Will Nico Hulkenberg sign with another team for the 2020 Formula 1 season to free up a seat at Renault for Esteban Ocon and thus effectively make Valtteri Bottas a lock to remain at Mercedes? If so, will that other team be Haas as expected? If Hulkenberg re-signs with Renault, what will happen to Ocon and Bottas?