IndyCar: Can Josef Newgarden clinch 2019 championship in Portland?

By Asher Fair | Aug 31, 2019

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MAY 24: Josef Newgarden of the United States, driver of the #2 Shell Team Penske Chevrolet stands on the grid during Carb Day for the 103rd Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on May 24, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

Can points leader Josef Newgarden secure his second career IndyCar championship in the penultimate race of the 2019 season at Portland International Raceway?

Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden has led the IndyCar championship standings after all but one of the first 15 races of the 2019 season. In fact, factoring in the point he scored by qualifying on the front row for the first race at the Raceway on Belle Isle, he has sat atop the standings heading into each race on the schedule.

Newgarden is set to enter this Sunday afternoon’s race, the penultimate race on the 17-race schedule, 38 points ahead of teammate Simon Pagenaud in second place and 46 points ahead of Andretti Autosport’s Alexander Rossi in third. Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon sits in fourth, 70 points behind Newgarden.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Engine: Points (Behind)
1st – Josef Newgarden, #2, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 563 (0)
2nd – Simon Pagenaud, #22, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 525 (-38)
3rd – Alexander Rossi, #27, Andretti Autosport, Honda: 517 (-46)
4th – Scott Dixon, #9, Chip Ganassi Racing, Honda: 493 (-70)

Can Newgarden clinch the 2019 championship, which would be his second championship in the last three seasons, in this race, the Grand Prix of Portland, at Portland International Raceway?

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To figure this out, first we have to look at the double points-paying season finale at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca. Bonus points are not doubled, so a win in this race with maximum bonus points (one for taking the pole position, one for leading at least one lap and two for leading the most laps) would result in 104 points (50×2+4).

A total of 25 cars are on the provisional entry list. Even if any more are added, this means that the smallest possible point total for a driver is 10 (5×2) points.

This means that there is a chance that Newgarden could be outscored by 94 points in the season finale by Pagenaud, Rossi or Dixon.

Is it a small chance? Absolutely. But it exists.

Newgarden could find himself at least 94 points ahead of Dixon upon the conclusion of this Sunday afternoon’s 105-lap race around the 12-turn, 1.945-mile (3.130-kilometer) Portland International Raceway natural terrain road course in Portland, Oregon. He would need to outscore him by at least 24 points, which is doable with between seven (23 cars) and 54 points on the table.

But to get 94 points ahead of Rossi, Newgarden would have to outscore him by at least 48 points. With a 47-point range of points on the table in this race, this is mathematically impossible. Additionally, to get 94 points ahead of Pagenaud, Newgarden would have to outscore him by 56 points in this race. Again, with a maximum of 54 points on the table, this is impossible.

Josef Newgarden cannot mathematically clinch the 2019 IndyCar championship in the season’s penultimate race. The most recent driver to have locked up a title heading into the season finale is Dan Wheldon, who did so en route to winning the 2005 championship, and that will remain the case this year.

As a result, for the 14th consecutive season, the champion will be crowned in the season finale.

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Tune in to NBC at 3:00 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of the Grand Prix of Portland from Portland International Raceway to see whether Josef Newgarden can get further ahead of Simon Pagenaud, Alexander Rossi and Scott Dixon in the championship standings or if one or more of them can reel him in heading into the 2019 IndyCar season finale.