NASCAR: Playoff-clinching scenarios in stage three at Indianapolis

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - SEPTEMBER 07: Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - SEPTEMBER 07: Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)

The first two stages of the Brickyard 400 are in the books. How can the final two berths in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs be secured in stage three?

We are officially down to the 79th and final stage of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series regular season.

The first 100 laps of the 160-lap regular season finale, the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, at Indianapolis Motor Speedway are in the books, meaning that stage points are no longer a factor when it comes to clinching a playoff berth.

Entering this race, here is how the battle at the playoff cut line looked among the four drivers who were mathematically eligible to qualify for the playoffs based on their point totals.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
15th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 625 (+8)
16th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 617 (+0)
————————— PLAYOFF CUT LINE —————————
16th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 617 (-0)
18th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 599 (-18)

Following the first two stages of this race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval in Speedway, Indiana, here is how this battle at the cut line looks.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
15th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 631 (+9)
16th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 623 (+1)
————————— PLAYOFF CUT LINE —————————
17th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 622 (-1)
18th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 607 (-16)

As a result, how can each of these four drivers still lock themselves into the four-round, 10-race playoffs?

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NOTE: Season-best finishes serve as the tiebreakers, and if those end up tied, the next best finish is the tiebreaker. Bowyer has recorded one second place finish, one third place finish and three fifth place finishes. Suarez and Johnson have each recorded one third place finish, one fourth place finish and one fifth place finish. Newman has recorded one fifth place finish.

Additionally, a win by any one of these four drivers automatically qualifies them for the playoffs, and a win by any one of the drivers below these four drivers in the championship standings means that only one of these four will qualify for the playoffs. For the sake of this article, we will be looking at point scenarios only.

Clint Bowyer, No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing Ford

  • Achieve two of the following three:
    • Avoid finishing nine positions behind Newman
    • Avoid finishing 10 positions behind Suarez OR nine positions behind him with a Suarez second place finish
    • Avoid finishing 25 positions behind Johnson OR 24 positions behind him with a Johnson second place finish

    Ryan Newman, No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing, Ford

    • Achieve two of the following three:
      • Finish ahead of Suarez
      • Finish nine positions ahead of Bowyer
      • Avoid finishing 16 positions behind Johnson

      Daniel Suarez, No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

      • Achieve two of the following three:
        • Finish ahead of Newman
        • Finish 10 positions ahead of Clint Bowyer OR nine positions ahead of him with a second place finish
        • Avoid finishing 15 positions behind Johnson

        Jimmie Johnson, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

        • Achieve two of the following three:
          • Finish 25 positions ahead of Bowyer OR 24 positions ahead of him with a second place finish
          • Finish 16 positions ahead of Newman
          • Finish 15 positions ahead of Suarez

          Which two drivers will join the 14 drivers who have already clinched berths in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs? Tune in to NBC now for the live broadcast of the third and final stage of the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.