NASCAR Cup Series 2019 playoffs: Who will take the final 2 spots?

It’s all or nothing for four drivers on the playoff cut line heading into the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is the site of the 26th and final race of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. After the series visits this track for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, more commonly known as the Brickyard 400 , the 16-driver field for the four-round, 10-race playoffs will be set.

Much of the playoff field is already set. A total of 10 different Cup Series points-eligible drivers have won at least one of the season’s first 25 races, and four other drivers mathematically clinched their playoff berths following the Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway this past Sunday night/Monday morning.

Here is how these 14 playoff drivers stack up in the playoff picture.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points/Wins (Playoff Points (Behind))
1st – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 wins (30 (-))
2nd – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 wins (23 (-7))
2nd – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 wins (23 (-7))
4th – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 3 wins (19 (-11))
5th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 2 wins (17 (-13))
6th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 2 wins (14 (-16))
6th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 2 wins (14 (-16))
8th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 1 win (8 (-22))
9th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 win (5 (-25))
10th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 1 win (5 (-25))
11th – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 714 points (4 (-26))
12th – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 710 points (2 (-28))
13th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 683 points (1 (-29))
14th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 674 points (1 (-29))

As a result, the focus of this Sunday’s 160-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval in Speedway, Indiana will be on the playoff bubble.

Four drivers sit within 26 points of one another right around the playoff bubble. Here is how these four drivers stack up against one another in the championship standings.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
15th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 625 (+8)
16th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 617 (+0)
————————— PLAYOFF CUT LINE —————————
16th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 617 (-0)
18th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 599 (-18)

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Daniel Suarez currently holds the tiebreaker over Ryan Newman as a result of the fact that his best finish of the season is his third place finish in the race at Texas Motor Speedway while Newman’s best finish of the season is his fifth place finish in the second race at Daytona International Speedway.

Anybody below these four drivers in the championship standings must win the regular season finale in order to clinch a playoff spot. The drive who currently sits in 19th place in the standings is Wood Brothers Racing’s Paul Menard, and he sits 69 points behind the playoff cut line. There are only a maximum of 60 points available in the regular season finale.

As a result, assuming nobody from 19th place or lower in the standings wins this race, two of these four drivers will get into the playoffs while two will not.

A driver below 19th or lower could certainly pull this off, but it isn’t likely. Leavine Family Racing’s Matt DiBenedetto has been hot lately, but Indianapolis Motor Speedway doesn’t lend itself to being the kind of track for him to pull off an upset victory. Menard’s lone Cup Series victory came at the Brickyard, but in 12 attempts, that is his lone top eight finish there.

So which two drivers out of Bowyer, Suarez, Newman and Johnson will qualify for the playoffs?

Barring an exceptional run and terrible runs for the other three drivers, it may very well take a victory for Johnson to do so, and he hasn’t won a race in over 27 months (84-race win drought).

Inconsistency has put Bowyer in this position. But he is currently on a two-race top 10 streak, both top seven finishes, for the first time since May, and while eight points isn’t a huge cushion above the playoff cut line, it should prove to be enough. Additionally, having four top six finishes, including a fifth place finish last year, in 13 starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway should play to his advantage.

Suarez has looked solid as of late with an average finish of 8.00 in the last three races, and he finished in seventh place in last year’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Even with Newman potentially being out to get him following their run-in at Darlington Raceway, Suarez is very calm heading into the race that will determine whether or not he will advance to the playoffs for the first time in his career.

Newman has outperformed his equipment all season, but he hasn’t finished in the top 10 in close to a month and a half. He has, however, had a lot of recent success at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with seven top 12 finishes, including a victory and a third place finish, in his last eighth races there.

So which two drivers will join the 14 drivers who have already locked themselves into the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs?

I’m going with Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez. Stewart-Haas Racing could very well see half of their four-car team miss the playoffs, or they very well could see the whole team qualify. The latter looks far more likely heading into the race weekend given the current situations of these two drivers as well as Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman.

Tune in to NBC at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, September 8 for the live broadcast of the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard from Indianapolis Motor Speedway.