NASCAR: How Erik Jones can still advance to the round of 12 without winning

Erik Jones can still advance to the round of 12 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs without winning the round of 16 finale.

Erik Jones’s fourth place finish in the second of three races of the round of 16 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs at Richmond Raceway did him wonders as it pertained to reducing his deficit to the round of 12 cut line.

The driver of the #20 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing went from 26 points below the round of 12 cut line to just three points below it.

But that all went away after he was disqualified from this 400-lap race around the four-turn, 0.75-mile (1.207-kilometer) Richmond Raceway oval in Richmond, Virginia after his #20 Toyota failed post-race inspection.

More from NASCAR Cup Series

As a result, he was stripped of the 33 points he earned as a result of his fourth place finish, and he was stripped of the nine stage points that he earned through the first two stages of the three-stage race. He was officially scored in 38th (last) place and given only one point.

Because of the points he lost and others gained as a result of his disqualification, he now sits 45 points below the round of 12 cut line with just one race remaining in the round of 16 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway roval.

For all intents and purposes, the 23-year-old Byron, Michigan native is in a must-win situation heading into this 109-lap race around the 17-turn, 2.28-mile (3.669-kilometer) Charlotte Motor Speedway roval in Concord, North Carolina.

But there are, in fact, still ways that he can lock himself into the round of 12 without winning this race.

Without winning a race, there are a maximum of 55 points on the table for each driver: 10 for winning stage one, 10 for winning stage two and 35 for finishing the race in second place. Every driver who enters the race is guaranteed to score one point.

With 40 drivers entered into this Sunday’s race, the Bank of America Roval 400, the five drivers who finish from 36th through 40th place will all score only one point (unless they score additional stage points).

So Jones can make up a maximum of 54 points on any given driver without winning. As a result, there are six drivers ahead of him who he can pass in the playoff picture without winning. To advance to the round of 12, he must pass at least four of them.

Here is how these six drivers, along with Jones, stack up against one another in the playoff picture.

NOTE: Tiebreakers go to the driver with the top finish in the round of 16.

Rank – Driver – Team: Points (Behind), Best Finish in Round of 16, Ahead of Erik Jones
10th – Ryan Blaney – #12, Team Penske, Ford: 2059 (+8), 5th, +51
11th – Aric Almirola – #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 2054 (+3), 13th, +46
12th – William Byron – #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 2053 (+2), 7th, +45
————————— ROUND OF 12 CUT LINE —————————
13th – Alex Bowman – #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 2051 (-2), 6th, +43
14th – Clint Bowyer – #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 2049 (-4), 8th, +41
15th – Kurt Busch – #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 2039 (-14), 18th, +31
16th – Erik Jones – #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 2008 (-45), 36th, (-)

At the absolute least, Jones needs to score 46 points, meaning he must score stage points. With a second place finish, he would need to score 11 stage points. With a third place finish, he would need to score 12 stage points, and so on. He can score 20 stage points at most, so an 11th place finish is the worst he can record using this 46-point method.

To play it safe, Jones would need to finish in the top five, as the best top finish of the drivers from William Byron and below is sixth place.

Assuming Jones scores 46 points with a fifth place finish, Byron would need to score one point (36th or worse without stage points). Alex Bowman would need to score three points or fewer (34th without stage points), Clint Bowyer would need to score five points or fewer (32nd without stage points) and Kurt Busch would need to score 15 points or fewer (22nd without stage points).

Considering Jones can score up to 55 points without winning, he even has additional flexibility, here, although not much. But if Byron finishes in the top 26, Jones cannot pass him. If Bowman finishes in the top 24, Jones cannot pass him. If Bowyer finishes in the top 22, Jones cannot pass him, and if Busch finishes in the top 12, Jones can also not pass him.

Additionally, if Blaney finishes in the top 32, Jones cannot pass him, and if Almirola finishes in the top 27, Jones can also not pass him. However, as stated above, he only needs to pass four of the six drivers who currently sit ahead of him, and Blaney and Almirola are the top two of these six drivers.

It’s a long shot, but Erik Jones could still advance to the round of 12 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs without winning the round of 16 finale at the Charlotte Motor Speedway roval. Be sure to tune in to the live broadcast of the Bank of America Roval 400 this Sunday, September 29 beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.