Formula 1: Is Sebastian Vettel done at Ferrari after 2019?

Sebastian Vettel has a contract with Ferrari through the 2020 Formula 1 season. But after the disastrous Brazilian Grand Prix, could Ferrari release him?

The 2019 Formula 1 season has been a tale of Ferrari beating themselves, whether that be by strategy errors, mechanical errors or the simple lack of ability to capitalize on superior pace in the races themselves following pole positions and front row qualifying efforts.

You could argue that the same was the case in the Brazilian Grand Prix at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace on Sunday, the penultimate race of the 21-race season. Or, you could more accurately isolate Sebastian Vettel from Ferrari as a whole to determine the cause of the sinking ship.

After Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas was forced to retire from this 71-lap race around the 15-turn, 2.677-mile (4.308-kilometer) Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace road course in Sao Paulo, Brazil on lap 52 with a hydraulics issue, the field packed up for a restart.

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Aston Martin Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen was the race leader ahead of Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in second place, but Verstappen came into the pits for new tires. Hamilton led the field to the restart ahead of Verstappen in second, Vettel in third, Red Bull Racing rookie Alexander Albon in fourth and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc in fifth.

Verstappen made quick work of Hamilton and retook the lead. Albon moved into third place by passing Vettel. Leclerc then passed Vettel for fourth.

Then Vettel got DRS and wrecked Leclerc, full stop.

Look at any replay; the view from in front of the cars is perfect.

https://twitter.com/F1/status/1196143146415132673

Sometimes these incidents are debatable.

But Vettel literally just drove right into the side of Leclerc.

The idea that Leclerc blocked is invalidated by the fact that he was literally moving to his left the entire time down the straightaway to give Vettel space and avoid an accident; look at his left side tires in relation to the pit road blend line.

Ferrari are known for having a hierarchy with a number one driver and a number two driver. Neither Vettel nor Leclerc is willing to conceded the number one driver role to his teammate, especially when team orders come into play like they have on several occasions this year, even though it is clear who is quicker.

Vettel has driven for Ferrari since the 2015 season. He spent his first four seasons with the team as the teammate to Kimi Raikkonen, and there was no doubt about his number one driver status.

But Ferrari brought in Leclerc ahead of this season for a reason, and he has proven that he is ready to win, and win a lot. He has taken a series-high seven pole positions this season; Vettel has taken two. He has won two races and had two others get away due to issues out of his control. Vettel has won one and blown a few others on his own.

The issues that hinder Leclerc are generally out of his control, such as the engine issue that cost him a dominant Bahrain Grand Prix victory and a poor tire strategy that cost him a dominant Austrian Grand Prix victory. Yet he still leads Vettel in the driver standings by 19 points (249 to 230) heading into the season finale.

Meanwhile, the issues that hinder Vettel are of his own doing, such as spinning out in the Bahrain Grand Prix, wrecking in the British Grand Prix, caving under pressure in the Canadian Grand Prix and being stripped of a win via penalty after unsafely reentering the track, spinning out in the Italian Grand Prix and reentering the track dangerously to the point where he was nearly suspended for one race, jumping the start so badly in the Japanese Grand Prix that he cost himself the advantage of the pole position, and now wrecking both himself and his teammate in the Brazilian Grand Prix.

And while everyone is quick to point out that Leclerc has put more pressure on Vettel than clear number two driver Raikkonen did, this can hardly be pinned on Leclerc. Vettel singlehandedly gave Hamilton last year’s championship, even with Raikkonen as his teammate.

Based on the net points that he lost and Hamilton gained by the plethora of unforced errors he made, including but not limited to wrecking in the German Grand Prix, making far too aggressive and ultimately costly moves in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix and the French Grand Prix and spinning out in the Italian Grand Prix, the Japanese Grand Prix and the United States Grand Prix, he would have won the title without these mistakes.

Vettel signed a three-year contract extension with Ferrari in August of 2017, meaning he has a deal in place to compete for the team in the 2020 season.

But you really have to wonder if he will be behind the wheel of one of the red cars for a sixth consecutive season next year.

As noted, this isn’t the first time Vettel has made a ridiculous move on-track, and if he comes back next year, it likely won’t be the last, perhaps not even with his teammate.

Formula 1 contracts typically contain out clauses for both the driver and the team, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Vettel’s form has enabled the ability of the team to trigger one of those clauses. Vettel himself had a contract to drive for Red Bull Racing through the 2015 season but left for Ferrari after the 2014 season by triggering a clause in the contract extension he signed in 2013.

Three teams have combined to win the last 138 races going back to early in the 2013 season: Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing. This season, five drivers have driven full-time for these three teams, as the second seat at Red Bull Racing was given to Albon from Gasly after the season’s 12th race.

Vettel sits in fifth place in the driver standings among these five drivers.

It’s one thing to make mistakes in the 2017 and 2018 season and still contend for the world championship and finish in second in the standings with five victories in both years. It’s another thing to do what Vettel has done this year and have hardly any success in the midst of it.

But with whom would Ferrari replace him?

Ferrari have the right to choose one of Alfa Romeo Racing’s drivers per season, and they backed rookie Antonio Giovinazzi this season. They have backed him to return to the team next year as well.

While he would seem to be a good option to play the number two driver role to Leclerc, he doesn’t seem quite ready to drive for the Maranello-based team, even given his improvement in form over the course of the second half of the season as he has gained experience.

Could Ferrari negotiate some kind of deal with Alfa Romeo Racing to have Kimi Raikkonen, the driver who Leclerc replaced ahead of the 2019 season, replace Vettel to send Vettel to the Swiss team?

There’s always veteran Nico Hulkenberg as well, who lost his ride with Renault for the 2020 season in favor of Esteban Ocon. He hasn’t found a ride and likely won’t, as the lone reaming seat on the grid for next year is the second seat at Williams, a seat he has ruled out. Nicholas Latifi, the team’s current test and reserve driver, has been tipped to land this ride anyway.

Of course, the chance still exists that Vettel will walk away on his own as well. It’s clear that Leclerc is the team’s superior driver already, and at 22 years old, he is clearly the driver who they plan to build around, not the 32-year-old Vettel.

Vettel could effectively feel forced out and decide to leave, perhaps even retire, after the 2019 season even though he has previously stated that he won’t.

He may not take well to being placed at a lesser team from Ferrari, even if it would potentially be to give him the chance to regain the form that he has lost as of late while allowing Ferrari to develop into true championship contenders with a young star coming into his own, perhaps alongside one of the most experienced drivers in the history of the sport in Raikkonen.

When the 2020 Formula 1 season rolls around on Sunday, March 15 at Melbourne Grand Prix Circuit for the Australian Grand Prix, will Sebastian Vettel be driving for Ferrari? He has a contract to do so, but there is reason to doubt that this contract will remain intact after 2019, especially given what happened on Sunday in Brazil.