Formula 1: How a Mercedes exit could reshape the 2021 grid

Mercedes are reportedly in talks about not returning to Formula 1 as a constructor in the 2021 season. How would a potential exit reshape the grid?

Since the 2014 Formula 1 season began and the V6 turbo hybrid era began along with it following four consecutive seasons of Red Bull Racing winning the constructor and driver championships, nobody has had anything to challenge Mercedes.

Mercedes have won all six constructor and driver championships since the 2014 season began. No team had ever been able to say this, although Ferrari did win six consecutive constructor titles from 1999 to 2004.

A total of 121 races have been contested since the 2014 season began, and Mercedes have won 89 of these 121 races, with Ferrari winning 17 and Red Bull Racing winning the other 15; it has been since the 2013 season-opening Australian Grand Prix since a non-Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing team won a race, with that race having been won by Lotus.

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But beyond the 2020 season, the final season before Liberty Media’s new rules and regulations are slated to go into effect with an aim to make the sport more competitive, Mercedes are not committed to competing in Formula 1 as a constructor, and there are rumors that they will walk away.

They do have engine deals lined up, one to continue supplying power units to Williams through at least the 2025 season and another to begin powering the currently Renault-powered McLaren team beginning in the 2021 season, just like they did from 1995 to 2014, but that would not necessarily entail continuing their factory effort.

They also currently supply engines to Racing Point as well, but there is no word on whether or not that deal will be extended.

Mercedes team principal and CEO Toto Wolff addressed the matter, acknowledging leaving Formula 1 as a legitimate possibility. Here is what he had to say, according to Motorsport.

"“It is an issue that we are currently discussing with each other. With an emphasis on ‘being’. These conversations have not yet been completed.”"

Let’s assume that Mercedes do, in fact, walk away after the 2020 season. What would that do to the grid for the 2021 season?

Naturally, it would eliminate two seats at the Brackley-based team, two highly coveted seats that are currently occupied by six-time champion Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas.

Hamilton has been rumored to leave Mercedes after the 2020 season anyway, presumably to join Ferrari as a seven-time champion with a chance to break Michael Schumacher’s all-time titles record with an eighth in the 2021 season.

Bottas hasn’t been the subject of much 2021 talk up to this point aside of the fact that Wolff previously stated that he would make sure future negotiations are handled differently than they were in 2019 when a contract extension was delayed until late August. That could mean a long-term future for the 30-year-old Finn, but there is no guarantee.

Another driver who had been rumored to Mercedes for the 2021 season was Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen. His contract with the Milton Keynes-based team expired after 2020, and there was speculation that he would leave the team if Honda and the team do not become a championship-caliber combination in their second season together.

However, Red Bull Racing put an end to that speculation by signing him to a three-year contract extension through the 2023 season. Additionally, he and Ferrari both previously burnt their respective bridges regarding joining forces in 2021, an unlikely scenario to begin with considering Charles Leclerc recently inked a deal with the Italian team through the 2024 season.

George Russell, a Mercedes junior driver, has also been rumored to the factory team, although Williams have confirmed that he is under contract through the 2021 season, so that wouldn’t be for next year anyway.

With Verstappen set to stay at Red Bull Racing amid all this talk, what happens to Hamilton? Does he move to Ferrari to replace Sebastian Vettel even with their long-term commitment to Leclerc? Does Wolff join Hamilton at Ferrari to avoid Leclerc getting in the way of an eighth championship for Hamilton? Does Hamilton move to Red Bull Racing to compete against Verstappen in equal equipment?

Daniel Ricciardo has been discussed as a possibility for this Ferrari seat as well with Renault reportedly looking to place a young driver alongside Esteban Ocon in 2021, so where would he end up? Could he end up back at Red Bull Racing instead? If so, what would happen to Alexander Albon? How, if at all, would Red Bull sister team Toro Rosso factor into the mix?

Bottom line, a Mercedes exit would put a lot higher value on the two free Ferrari and Red Bull Racing seats, and it could make Silly Season a whole lot more interesting, even than it already is.

Will Mercedes be back in Formula 1 as a constructor in the 2021 season, or will the 2020 season be their final campaign?