Formula 1: How will Max Verstappen’s Red Bull deal impact Silly Season?

Max Verstappen is now under contract through the 2023 Formula 1 season. How will his three-year extension impact Silly Season?

Set to enter a contract year in the 2020 Formula 1 season, Max Verstappen was considering arguably the top free agent in what is slated to be a loaded free agent class of 2021.

However, he is no longer slated to be such a thing, as he and Red Bull Racing agreed to a three-year contract extension to keep him with the Milton Keynes-based team through the 2023 season.

With the supposed top free agent of next year’s class off the table more than two months before the 2020 season is even scheduled to begin, how will this deal affect Silly Season?

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This contract was the second lengthy contract signed by a top-tier driver at a top-tier team in recent weeks, as Charles Leclerc signed a contract extension to continue driving for Ferrari through the 2024 season back in late December.

Make no mistake about it; Leclerc’s contract extension was a massive deal on many levels. We are talking about one of the rising stars who has championship potential and has already proven himself as a race winner in his first season at Ferrari, winning two races en route to a fourth place finish in the driver standings.

But as far as Silly Season is concerned, it really didn’t matter.

There was really never a doubt that the 22-year-old Monegasque is the driver who Ferrari plan to build around, and his initial contract, which he signed in September of 2018, was said to last until at least the 2022 season ended.

As for Verstappen’s contract, that, too, is a big deal. He, like Leclerc, is one of the rising stars of the sport with championship potential, and he has proven himself as a race winner, winning in each of his first four seasons at Red Bull Racing.

He won a career-high three races in the 2019 season en route to a career-high third place finish in the driver standings, this coming one year after he notched his fifth win at an age when no other driver in Formula 1 history had ever even earned one victory.

But Verstappen’s contract is also a big deal as it pertains to Silly Season.

It was initially believed that Red Bull Racing would need to improve in their second season with Honda as their engine manufacturer to the point where they could challenge six-time reigning champions Mercedes for the world championship in order to retain Verstappen.

Otherwise, he could make the move to the Silver Arrows, a deal neither side would be able to refuse and one that Verstappen only recently refused to rule out prior to signing this contract extension.

Zero races into 2020, we know that this clearly wasn’t the case.

So what happens now?

Now the focus will turn solely to Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes and everything that could happen across the rest of the grid, particularly at Mercedes and Ferrari, depending on what happens there.

Hamilton’s contract with Mercedes is up after the 2020 season. Valtteri Bottas’s contract with Mercedes is also up after the 2020 season. Same thing with Sebastian Vettel’s contract with Ferrari.

Vettel’s recent decline in performance over the last few seasons, marked by the many unforced errors that he has made to cost himself and the team, has led many to believe that he will not be with the Scuderia after his contract expires.

Hamilton has been rumored to join Ferrari as Vettel’s replacement, and those rumors have only heated up following the conclusion of the 2019 season. One source even stated that it was “certain” that he would end up at the Italian team and that Mercedes CEO and team principal Toto Wolff would join him to ensure that he would be given priority over Leclerc.

Now Hamilton can walk away from Mercedes, and they would not have their targeted fallback option of Verstappen.

They would still have options, including George Russell and Daniel Ricciardo. Russell is a Mercedes junior driver who currently competes for Williams, and while Williams stated that he is not going anywhere until at least after the 2021 season ends, it is believed that Mercedes could pry him free from that contract if need be.

Ricciardo, who was linked to a Mercedes seat a few years ago, is set to enter a contract year with Renault, and team managing director Cyril Abiteboul has already indicated that he won’t be back with the team in 2021, citing his desire to pair Esteban Ocon with a young driver from the Renault Driver Academy.

But would Mercedes really want to overhaul their driver lineup?

Perhaps. Bottas has been a solid option since joining the team in 2017, hence why he is slated to compete on a one-year deal for the fourth consecutive season in 2020. With that being said, he has done absolutely nothing to show that he can contend for a championship, winning seven races compared to Hamilton’s 31 since the two became teammates.

At this point, it is clear that Bottas is at Mercedes because he is more of a team player, and that has been on full display at various points throughout the last three years, most notably in 2018. If Hamilton leaves, would Mercedes really want to retain him?

Let’s say Hamilton ends up sticking around at Mercedes. You could potentially have them bringing back Bottas, promoting Russell or hiring Ricciardo, although a Ferrari deal for the former Red Bull Racing driver who happens to be fluent in Italian may be more appealing (and likely) at this point.

But what you would almost assuredly have is Hamilton effectively naming his price for the team to retain him knowing that the they can’t simply say “You don’t want to be here? Well then we can just go ahead and hire Max Verstappen for cheaper.”

No matter how you want to look at it or what scenarios you can envision at this point, Verstappen’s early contract extension with Red Bull Racing made the situations at Mercedes and Ferrari a whole lot more interesting for the 2021 season.

With Max Verstappen under contract at Red Bull Racing through the 2023 Formula 1 season and off the market well earlier than expected, how will Silly Season turn out? Which drivers will end up with which teams for the 2021 season, namely Mercedes and Ferrari? Will there be a considerable amount of movement one year after 18 of 20 drivers stayed put?