Formula 1: Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari departure is only the beginning

Sebastian Vettel leaving Ferrari after the 2020 Formula 1 season is only the beginning when it comes to 2021 Silly Season.

“Sebastian Vettel will not return to Ferrari for the 2021 Formula 1 season.”

It’s news that came as a shock to us all when it was confirmed, but at the same time, news we have expected to see during much of the time since the four-time world champion signed his most recent contract extension back in August of 2017.

In fact, it may have been one of the more expected occurrences that involved some kind of shift across the driver lineup for the 2021 season.

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Vettel has made many unforced errors in recent years, and one even nearly got him suspended late last season.

In fact, if you do the math from top to bottom, the points which he threw away in the 2017 and 2018 seasons coupled with those gained by Lewis Hamilton due to his errors cost him world championships in both seasons. Vettel finished runner-up to the now six-time world champion in both years.

The 2020 season still hasn’t gotten started as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, as the earliest race which hasn’t been removed from what was a record-breaking 22-race schedule is the Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring. The scheduled race date is Sunday, July 5, but that is subject to change.

But even with the 2020 season having not yet gotten started, Silly Season for the 2021 season is well underway, perhaps even earlier than it would have been had the season gotten underway as initially planned back in mid-March.

The confirmation of Vettel’s departure from Ferrari is obviously huge news. But it is the mere tip of the iceberg of what is shaping up to be a crazy Silly Season.

After 2018, just eight of the 20 drivers stayed at their respective teams. Six more switched teams while six others came in and replaced the other six. After 2019, there were just two changes, with two drivers coming in as replacements and the other 18 staying put.

After 2020 could look a lot more like after 2018 than after 2019.

Only six of the sport’s 20 drivers are under contract for the 2021 season and/or beyond. They include Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (2024), Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen (2023), McLaren’s Lando Norris (2022), Racing Point’s Sergio Perez (2022), Williams’ George Russell (2021) and Renault’s Esteban Ocon (2021).

Of course, some of these drivers are believed to have out clauses in their contracts that could allow them to move on sooner. But even without that considered, there are still 14 drivers who have a chance to move around the driver lineup ahead of next season.

Now Vettel is confirmed free agent, meaning that he will either sign elsewhere or leave Formula 1 altogether and that Ferrari will need to select his replacement. Several other pending free agents have been linked to his seat, most notably Hamilton, Daniel Ricciardo and Carlos Sainz Jr. from Mercedes, Renault and McLaren, respectively.

Vettel himself has been linked specifically to Renault and McLaren, with Mercedes and Alfa Romeo Racing seen as longshots and retirement seen as a definite possibility. Wherever Vettel goes or doesn’t go and whoever replaces him will naturally set off a chain reaction of its own.

Suffice it to say that this year’s driver changes will include much more than Ocon replacing Nico Hulkenberg at Renault and Nicholas Latifi replacing Robert Kubica at Williams.

2021 Formula 1 Silly Season is just getting started — even before the 2020 Formula 1 season.