NASCAR: Aric Almirola's random draw odds are mind-blowing

Nobody has gotten more love from NASCAR’s random qualifying draws than Aric Almirola, who is set to start from the pole position for the third time this afternoon at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Take a look at the mind-blowing odds of drawing like he has.

NASCAR recently announced that there will be no more practice sessions nor qualifying sessions throughout the remainder of the 2020 season.

Fortunately, this is nothing new, as there have been no practice sessions and only one legitimate qualifying session since the sport returned from the 10-week hiatus caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

There have been 16 races for which the starting lineup has been set since the sport returned this hiatus, and of those 16 races, 12 saw their starting lineups set by random draws, including today’s.

Let’s take a look at the math to see just how mind-blowing the odds behind Almirola’s random draws have been in the 10 races he has been eligible for the pole position.

We’ll start off easy. The chances of him drawing inside the top five were 5/12 (41.67%) for each individual race. His odds of doing that 10 times in a row? 5/12 to the 10th power. That comes out to roughly 1/6,340 (0.0158%).

As for his average draw, he has totaled 26 positions in these 10 draws. With 10 poles, he would have totaled 10 positions. With 10 12th place starts, he would have totaled 120.

This stat is more about how close he is to the absolute best possible outcome than it is about the odds. He is 16 positions away (1.6 per race) from the best and 94 away (9.4 per race) from the worst.

Now back to the odds.

Six front row starts.

The chances of him drawing a front row position for each individual race are 1/6 (16.67%). The chances of him not doing so are 5/6 (83.33%).

1/6 to the sixth power (six front row starts) is 1/46,656 (0.00214%). 5/6 to the fourth power (four non-front row starts) is only slightly below half (48.225%). Multiply the two together to get roughly 1/96,746 (0.00103%).

However, his odds weren’t that low since there are multiple combinations by which he could have secured six front row starts.

There are 210 different combinations by which he could have secured six front row starts in 10 races, irrespective of whether he starts in first or second place. This number was calculated by using factorials, which are what you get when you multiply a number by every whole number below it.

You calculate this by taking the factorial of 10 and dividing it by the factorial of 6, and then dividing that total by the factorial of 4.

So 36,288,000 divided by 720, divided by 24.

Now multiply that 210 by that extremely small chance of 1/96,746 (0.00103%)

Answer: 1/461 chance (0.217%)

Almirola had a roughly 1/461 chance (0.217%) to secure six front row starts in 10 races.

Finally, pole positions. This is calculated in a similar way to front row starts, except we are only working with three pole positions and the chances of drawing a pole position are 1/12 (8.33%). The chances of not doing so are 11/12 (91.67%).

1/12 to the third power (three pole positions) is 1/1,728 (0.0579%). 11/12 to the seventh power (seven non-pole positions) is actually above half (54.39%). Multiply the two together to get roughly 1/3,177 (0.0315%).

But again, his odds weren’t that low since there are multiple combinations by which he could have secured three pole positions.

There are 120 different ways by which he could have done secured three pole positions in 10 races, again calculated by using factorials. You calculate this by taking the factorial of 10 and dividing it by the factorial of 3, and then dividing that total by the factorial of 7.

So 36,288,000 divided by 6, divided by 5,040.

Now multiply that 120 by that extremely small chance of 1/3,177 (0.0315%).

Answer: 1/26.48 chance (3.78%)

Almirola had a roughly 1/26.48 chance (3.78%) to secure three pole positions, which was actually quite better than his odds of securing six front row starts.

In fact, he had a 30.45 times greater chance of securing three pole positions than he did securing six front row starts.

This does make sense given the fact that he still managed to draw the only other front row starting position three times in the seven races for which he did not take the pole position when his chances to do so were only 1/11 (9.09%) each time.

Next. Top 100 NASCAR drivers of all-time. dark

Will Almirola be able to capitalize on this good fortune and secure what would be not only his first win of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season but his first win since he won at Talladega Superspeedway back in October of 2018? Tune in to NBC Sports Network at 3:00 p.m. ET this afternoon for the live broadcast of the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

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NASCAR: Aric Almirola’s random draw odds are mind-blowing

By Asher Fair | Aug 2, 2020

Nobody has gotten more love from NASCAR’s random qualifying draws than Aric Almirola, who is set to start from the pole position for the third time this afternoon at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Take a look at the mind-blowing odds of drawing like he has.

Let’s take a look at the math to see just how mind-blowing the odds behind Almirola’s random draws have been in the 10 races he has been eligible for the pole position.

Now back to the odds.

However, his odds weren’t that low since there are multiple combinations by which he could have secured six front row starts.

But again, his odds weren’t that low since there are multiple combinations by which he could have secured three pole positions.