NASCAR: Aric Almirola’s random draw numbers were off the charts

By Asher Fair | Aug 16, 2020

Aric Almirola, Stewart-Haa Racing, NASCAR (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

Aric Almirola was eligible for 11 of the 13 NASCAR Cup Series random pole draws this season. He drew inside the top five every time.

NASCAR has officially eliminated the random draws from setting the starting lineups for the remainder of the 2020 season and replaced them with a formula involving three weighted variables, and the driver who may be most disappointed about that rule change is Aric Almirola.

The Stewart-Haas Racing driver was eligible for the pole position in 11 of the 13 random draws that were conducted this year, as he entered these 11 races with his #10 Ford ranking in the top 12 in the owner standings. Each driver in the top 12 had a 1/12 (8.33%) chance of drawing the pole position.

He ended up taking a series-high three pole positions and three additional front row starts in these 11 draws, and not once did he draw outside of the top five.

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In these 11 draws, which naturally produced an overall average draw position of 6.50 given that they totaled 78 positions among 12 drivers each time, his average draw position was an astounding 2.73, by far the best among all drivers.

What were his odds to draw such great starting positions?

How to calculate his odds to take three pole positions, six front row starts and a complete sweep of top five positions during these 11 random draws was outlined in an earlier post about the subject.

Here is a brief rundown.

His odds of securing a top five sweep are simple; simply take 5/12 (41.67%) to the power of 11 to find that he had only a 0.00657% chance of pulling that off.

That equates to once in roughly 15,217 tries.

As for securing three pole positions and six front row starts in 11 random draws, those odds are a bit more complicated.

There are a total of 165 possible combinations that yield three pole positions in 11 random draws, and there are a total of 462 possible combinations that yield six front row starts, calculated using factorials (explained here).

Multiply 165 by the chances of taking three pole positions (1/12 to the power of 3) and not taking the other eight pole positions (11/12 to the power of 8) to find that he had a 4.76% chance of pulling this off, which equates to roughly once in 21 tries.

Now multiply 462 by the chances of taking six front row starts (1/6 to the power of 6) and not taking the other five row starts (5/6 to the power of 5) to find that he had a 0.398% chance of pulling this off, which equates to roughly once in 251 tries.

Again, a more detailed explanation can be found here.

The reason his odds of taking six front row starts were far lower than his odds of taking three pole positions is because of the fact that if you know he doesn’t take a pole position, his chances of taking a front row start become just 1/11 (9.09%). He still managed to do that three times in eight tries (37.50% of the time).

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Almirola is set to start this afternoon’s Go Bowling 235 at the Daytona International Speedway road course in sixth place using NASCAR’s new formula to determine the starting lineups. Tune in to NBC at 3:00 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of the inaugural race at the track.

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