NASCAR: The dramatic aftermath of upset winners

Take a look at what upset winners would do to the NASCAR Cup Series playoff cut line as the 2020 postseason approaches with three regular season races remaining.

We are down to the final three races of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, and only 10 drivers have secured playoff berths, leaving six remaining open spots in the four-round, 10-race postseason.

The three races remaining on the schedule are set to take place at Dover International Speedway and Daytona International Speedway, with two set to take place at the latter as a part of a doubleheader weekend this upcoming weekend.

As of right now, the 16-driver playoff field includes only the top 14 in points, of whom eight have won at least one race this year, while two drivers who would not be in the playoffs on points have also locked up playoff berths via wins.

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These two upset winners are Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon, who won at Texas Motor Speedway and sits in 18th place in the point standings, and Stewart-Haas Racing rookie Cole Custer, who won at Kentucky Speedway and sits in 20th.

The six drivers who sit above the playoff cut line on points are all at least 25 points above that cut line. In fact, three of them are at least 100 points above it. But due to the possibility of upset winners who could lock up playoff berths without getting in on points over the next three races, none of these six drivers are even remotely safe.

Take a look at the current playoff cut line, which sits between the drivers who sit in 14th and 15th place in the point standings as opposed to the drivers who sit in 16th and 17th due to the two upset winners.

NOTE: 12th place driver Alex Bowman of Hendrick Motorsports is a race winner and is not included. Only drivers who can still qualify on points are included.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
8th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 682 (+130)
9th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 673 (+121)
10th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 652 (+100)
11th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 618 (+66)
13th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 596 (+44)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 577 (+25)
——————PLAYOFF CUT LINE——————
15th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 552 (-25)
16th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 542 (-35)
17th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 520 (-57)

But in the event of one upset winner, here is where that cut line effectively goes.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
8th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 682 (+105)
9th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 673 (+96)
10th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 652 (+75)
11th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 618 (+41)
13th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 596 (+19)
——————PLAYOFF CUT LINE——————
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 577 (-19)
15th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 552 (-44)
16th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 542 (-54)
17th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 520 (-76)

Make note of the fact that even if that upset winner comes from the 15th to 17th place range, it would still move the cut line to between Matt DiBenedetto and William Byron (keeping point differences equal after each race) since it would only allow for five drivers to get in on points.

So if Jimmie Johnson were to win a race and even if he were to jump up a few positions in points, that cut line would still be between the current 13th and 14th place drivers (although they may be 14th and 15th after Johnson’s win).

Here is where that cut line goes in the event of two upset winners.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
8th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 682 (+86)
9th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 673 (+77)
10th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 652 (+56)
11th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 618 (+22)
——————PLAYOFF CUT LINE——————
13th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 596 (-22)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 577 (-41)
15th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 552 (-66)
16th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 542 (-76)
17th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 520 (-98)

Finally, here is where it goes in the event of three upset winners.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
8th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 682 (+64)
9th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 673 (+55)
10th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 652 (+34)
——————PLAYOFF CUT LINE——————
11th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 618 (-34)
13th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 596 (-56)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 577 (-75)
15th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 552 (-100)
16th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 542 (-110)
17th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 520 (-132)

Keep in mind, there are still three races to go.

What is that significant? As one example, if three upset winners emerge and Clint Bowyer outscores Kyle Busch by more than 34 points over these three races — not just one race — the two-time and defending champion will miss the playoffs.

And even Aric Almirola, who sits a solid 130 points ahead of the playoff cut line, isn’t safe. He has made it his goal to secure a playoff spot before the regular season finale (SEE: Mathematical analysis). Without upset winners, he could very well do that, but with upset winners, he is far from comfortable.

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Which drivers will qualify for the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs on points? Will any other new winners emerge, and will those new winners come from below the playoff cut line?

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