NASCAR: The playoff picture is already shaken up

Even with a win in the opening race of the round of 12 of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, Kurt Busch isn’t in the top eight in points, thus shaking up the playoff picture.

The one race not deemed to be a “wild card” race in the three-race round of 12 of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, Sunday evening’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, produced an upset winner, thus shaking up the playoff picture already.

Because of the nature of the playoffs, a win in any given round automatically advances a driver to the next round, irrespective of point total. In Kurt Busch’s case, he isn’t in the top eight in points, but he is already locked into the round of 8 because of his win.

We saw it happen last year, when third place driver Joey Logano failed to advance to the Championship 4 because both fourth and fifth place drivers Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin won a race in the round of 8.

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And it looks like we’ll see it again — and that’s without considering the fact that the remaining two races of the round of 12 are at what are considered to be the “wild card” tracks of Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

Even with a win to lock himself into the round of 8, Busch ranks ninth in points, as his point total is 3,041. As a result, the round of 8 cut line has already moved up to between the drivers who rank seventh and eighth in points instead of eighth and ninth.

Take a look at the current playoff picture.

Rank – Driver: Points/Wins (Behind)
1st – Kurt Busch: 1 WIN (LOCKED INTO ROUND OF 8)
2nd – Kevin Harvick: 3,104 (+61)
3rd – Denny Hamlin: 3,101 (+58)
4th – Brad Keselowski: 3,059 (+16)
5th – Martin Truex Jr.: 3,058 (+15)
6th – Joey Logano: 3,054 (+11)
7th – Chase Elliott: 3,053 (+10)
8th – Alex Bowman: 3,052 (+9)
————ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE————
9th – Kyle Busch: 3,043 (-9)
10th – Clint Bowyer: 3,032 (-20)
11th – Aric Almirola: 3,025 (-27)
12th – Austin Dillon: 3,020 (-32)

It’s hard to see Kevin Harvick or Denny Hamlin dropping outside of the top eight here, but because of Kurt Busch’s win, everybody else is a bit closer to not qualifying for the round of 8 than they would otherwise be.

On points alone, the cut line would be down one spot from where it actually is. It would be between Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch instead of between Alex Bowman and Kyle Busch. Kyle would be in the top eight while Kurt would still be out, instead of Kyle currently being out and Kurt being locked in.

Here’s a look at where the round of 8 cut line would be on points alone.

Rank – Driver: Points/Wins (Behind)
1st – Kevin Harvick: 3,104 (+63)
2nd – Denny Hamlin: 3,101 (+60)
3rd – Brad Keselowski: 3,059 (+18)
4th – Martin Truex Jr.: 3,058 (+17)
5th – Joey Logano: 3,054 (+13)
6th – Chase Elliott: 3,053 (+12)
7th – Alex Bowman: 3,052 (+11)
8th – Kyle Busch: 3,043 (+2)
————ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE————
9th – Kurt Busch: 3,041 (-2)
10th – Clint Bowyer: 3,032 (-11)
11th – Aric Almirola: 3,025 (-18)
12th – Austin Dillon: 3,020 (-23)

Everybody above Kurt would be farther above the round of 8 cut line than they really are, while everybody below him would be closer to it than they really are.

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The round of 12 of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is scheduled to continue this Sunday, October 4 with the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. This race is set to be broadcast live on NBC beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET.

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