IndyCar: It is still going to take a miracle to beat Scott Dixon

While Josef Newgarden has taken a huge chunk out of Scott Dixon’s points lead, it is still going to take a miracle for him to win the 2020 IndyCar championship.

Taking a 117-point deficit and reducing it to just a 32-point gap is no easy task over the course of an IndyCar season, much less over the course of five races — and much less against a five-time series champion.

But that is exactly what two-time and reigning champion Josef Newgarden of Team Penske has managed to do over Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon ever since Dixon secured his fourth victory of the season at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in late August.

The 29-year-old Hendersonville, Tennessee native has not been outscored by the 40-year-old New Zealander in any of the five races that have been contested since then, and while he has managed to win twice, Dixon has managed to record just one top seven finish.

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However, it is still going to take a miracle to knock off “The Iceman” — even when you place a premium on what Newgarden has been able to do over the last five races.

Making up 32 points over any competitor is no easy task with just 54 points available for each driver in each race, including 50 for the race winner, one for the polesitter, one for any driver who leads at least one lap and two for the driver who leads the most laps.

Compounding that challenge is the fact that all drivers who compete in the race are guaranteed to score five points.

But here’s where it gets even more challenging.

Only once this season has Newgarden outscored Dixon by at least 32 points. Unfortunately for him, however, even a repeat of that performance won’t win him the championship because of the tiebreaker.

Dixon currently leads the wins tiebreaker with four wins to Newgarden’s three. But even if Newgarden wins the season finale to tie Dixon in wins, Dixon would still win the tiebreaker with two runner-up finishes to Newgarden’s one.

So Dixon has clinched the tiebreaker, meaning that Newgarden needs to outscore him by at least 33 points to win the 2020 championship, something he hasn’t done in a single race since last June when he won at Texas Motor Speedway after Dixon crashed out to create a 37-point swing. That was now 22 races ago.

All Dixon needs to do is score 22 points in the season finale to clinch the 2020 championship, no matter what Newgarden does.

In Newgarden’s favor, however, no driver has won the championship having led the standings after each and every race on the schedule since Sam Hornish Jr. did it in 2001. Dixon has led the series in points all year long.

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Who will win the 2020 IndyCar championship? Tune in to NBC at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 25 for the live broadcast of the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg from the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida.