IndyCar: How Josef Newgarden can clinch his 3rd championship

By Asher Fair | Oct 23, 2020

Josef Newgarden, Team Penske, IndyCar - Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Josef Newgarden is the only driver who can surpass Scott Dixon in the standings to win the 2020 IndyCar championship. Here’s how he can do it.

After taking a 117-point deficit and reducing it by 85 points over the course of the last five races, Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden is the only driver who has a chance to surpass Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon, who has led the IndyCar standings since dominating the season opener at Texas Motor Speedway back in early June, to win the 2020 championship.

But it won’t be easy.

The two-time and reigning champion has his work cut out for him in this Sunday’s season finale on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida, as a 32-point deficit (502 to 470) won’t be easy to overcome with a maximum of 54 points on the table — and the ability to only make up 48 points on any single competitor.

More from IndyCar

All 24 drivers who compete in the race are guaranteed to score at least six points, and race winners can score as many as 54 with all four bonus points (50 for winning, one for taking the pole position, one for leading at least one lap — a guarantee for race winners — and two for leading the most laps.

To make matters even more challenging for Newgarden, he needs to outscore Dixon by 33 points, not 32, since Dixon has already clinched the tiebreaker.

Dixon leads Newgarden in wins this season four to three, but even if Newgarden wins the season finale, Dixon would secure the tiebreaker due to having more second place finishes (two to one).

Newgarden hasn’t outscored Dixon by more than 32 points in any of the last 21 races going back to last June.

So assuming Dixon competes in the race and crashes out on the opening lap to score just six points, Newgarden can finish as high as third place and still not win the championship.

Third place finishes are worth 35 points, so he would not win the title unless he scores all four possible bonus points — and that’s in a worst-case scenario for Dixon.

There are 11 possible point totals which Newgarden can score and win this year’s championship over Dixon. Note that 50 is not one of them, since race winners are guaranteed to score at least 51.

Here is how he can win the title in each of these 12 scenarios.

54 points (win + four bonus points)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score 22 points (so he cannot finish better than 10th place with one bonus point — or, with maximum bonus points, 13th)
53 points (win + three bonus points)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score 21 points (so he cannot finish better than 10th place — or, with maximum bonus points, 14th)
52 points (win + two bonus points)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score 20 points (so he cannot finish better than 11th place — or, with maximum bonus points, 15th)
51 points (win + one bonus point)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score 19 points (so he cannot finish better than 12th place — or, with maximum bonus points, 16th)
44 points (second place finish + four bonus points)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score 12 points (so he cannot finish better than 19th place — or, with maximum bonus points, 23rd)
43 points (second place finish + three bonus points)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score 11 points (so he cannot finish better than 20th place — or, with maximum bonus points, 24th)
42 points (second place finish + two bonus points)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score 10 points (so he cannot finish better than 21st place — or, with three bonus points, 24th)
41 points (second place finish + one bonus point)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score nine points (so he cannot finish better than 22nd place — or, with two bonus points, 24th)
40 points (second place finish)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score eight points (so he cannot finish better than 23rd place — or, with one bonus point, 24th)
39 points (third place finish + four bonus points)
- Newgarden wins the championship if Dixon does not score seven points (so he must finish in 24th place)
38 points (third place finish + three bonus points)
- Newgarden cannot win the championship as long as Dixon competes since he cannot score fewer than six points, even with a last place finish.

Next. Top 10 IndyCar drivers of all-time. dark

The Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg is scheduled to conclude the 2020 IndyCar season this Sunday, October 25, and it is set to be broadcast live on NBC beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET.